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Home or Away? The Top 10 FPL Forwards

March 29, 2016

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Deep in the midst on an international break, and just weeks from a potentially defining DGW34, the FPL has time to reflect and plan as the most important weeks of the season are thrust upon our teams. With GW32 approaching heavyweight forward options such as Jamie Vardy and Harry Kane are likely to be disposed of, at least for a short spell, to make way for players playing twice. Martial, Rashford, Lukaku, and Aguero, may eat up the ownership of the established heavy hitters. In the third part of our series of whether or not players are performing better from a fantasy standpoint at home or away, we turn to the top of the pitch with forward options. 6 of the top 10 point scoring forwards are set for double duty during DGW34, and we look at whether they're hitting form on the road, or if fan support is the basis for fantasy points.

 

 

Home or Away? FPL Midfielders

It's crunch time in the Fantasy Premier League. Fixtures for the elusive Double Gameweeks are slowly being added to the FPL website, and many patient managers who have endured the winter months are heavily considering playing chips and the second wildcard for a points boost when the right time arises. With many changes abound, we evaluate the top 10 midfielders heading GW31, and ask the simple question... Do they produce better fantasy returns at home or away? Tricky fixtures for the likes of favourites Mesut Ozil, Roberto Firmino, and Dimitri Payet to name a few, have had us call into question whether or not we need to worry about these popular selections heading into this week and the future.

 

To read our sister article on midfielders, click here, or on the image below with cover stars Gylfi Sigurdsson and Mesut Ozil.

 

 

Home or Away? FPL Goalkeepers

On the eve of a packed Gameweek 31, which itself is on the eve of a two week international break, the Fantasy Premier League begins to run out of normality. With just a matter of weeks before bumper Double Gameweek fixtures, we ask the simple question. Are Goalkeepers earning more FPL points at home or away? Just like with our recent midfielders article, we provide a rundown of the top 10 points earners between the sticks. Midfielders are more profitable on the road, will shot stoppers follow suit, or are they men of home comforts?

 

To read our second sister article on goalkeepers, click here, or on the image below with cover stars Hugo Lloris and David de Gea.

 

 

The simple question...

Requires the simple answer. For forwards we've looked just at overall points tallies from home and away fixtures running up until GW31, and after tapping away with a calculator have unearthered whether players are more effective from a fantasy standpoint in front of their own fans, or if they're more likely to score and assist at rival grounds.

 

 

Notes on Vardy

  • Vardy has started every single Premier League game this season, despite a few niggling injury worries, a broken wrist, and surgery in January.

  • The English forward has scored in 16/31 games this season, but hasn’t found the back of the net in his last 5 games.

  • 25 bonus points is the second highest amount accumulated by a single player in the FPL. Any guesses who Vardy is behind? You don’t need any, it’s Mahrez with 37.

  • Vardy has contributed towards 27 goals this season: 19 goals, 8 assists.

  • Vardy has only blanked on 8 occasions this season (scoring 2 or less points): GWs 2, 18, 19, 20, 21, 25, 28, 29

 

Vardy’s best home days…

 

GW7 (Arsenal, home): 12pts

GW12 (Watford, home): 9pts

GW14 (Man United, home): 9pts

GW23 (Stoke, home): 7 pts

GW24 (Liverpool, home): 12pts

 

Vardy’s best away days…

 

GW4 (Bournemouth, away): 8pts

GW8 (Norwich, away): 9pts

GW9 (Southampton, away): 13pts

GW17 (Everton, away): 8pts

GW26 (Arsenal, away): 7pts

 

 

Notes on Kane

  • In 2 games against Bournemouth this season, Kane has amassed 33 FPL points. No player has scored more points against a single team this season. That being said, Aguero is set to face Newcastle in DGW34, having scored 25 from the first encounter, whilst Gini Wijnaldum has 25 against Norwich. The Toon travel to Norwich in the upcoming GW32.

  • Kane loves playing promoted teams. In addition to the 33 points picked up against the Cherries, the Hurrikane has scored 13 points against Norwich on 2 occasions, totalling 26 points. In addition, Kane has managed just the 9 points against Watford, having played the Hornets twice. That takes Kane’s tally against promoted teams this season to 66 points.

  • Kane was the first player to reach 20 goals this season in a 3-0 home victory for Spurs over Bournemouth

  • Kane has managed double figure points on 7 occasions this season. All but one of these big GWs has been against teams in the bottom 6. The exception being the 13 points picked up against West Ham during GW13.

  • The Hurrikane didn’t score until GW7 against Man City at home.

  • Kane has a zero point week to his name, having played 90 minutes. During GW8, away at Swansea in a 2-2 draw, Kane scored an own-goal, and has now managed this feat two seasons running.

  • Kane has been substituted from 5/31 games this season.

  • Of Spurs’s 56 goals this season, Kane has scored 21, and assisted in 3.

  • Kane has 60 more points away from home this season than Sergio Aguero, whilst Aguero has 9 more home points than Kane. Vardy has more home points than Kane and Aguero with 94, but Kane has 14 more away points.

 

Kane’s best home days…

 

GW7 (Man City, home): 7pts

GW11 (Aston Villa, home): 8pts

GW 13 (West Ham, home): 13pts

GW18 (Norwich, home): 13pts

GW22 (Sunderland, home): 10pts

GW29 (Arsenal, home): 6pts

GW31 (Bournemouth, home): 16pts

 

Kane’s best away days…

 

GW10 (Bournemouth, away): 17 points

GW12 (Arsenal, away): 8pts

GW17 (Southampton, away): 6pts

GW19 (Watford, away): 7pts

GW24 (Norwich, away): 13pts

GW26 (Man City, away): 6pts

GW30 (Aston Villa, away): 13pts

 

 

Notes on Lukaku

  • Since GW22, Lukaku’s price has fallen from 9.3m to 8.9m.

  • 8/18 of Lukaku’s goals came between GWs 11-17. In addition, Big Room has only scored 3 goals in the second half of the season (GW20 onwards).

  • Lukaku is joint with 2 other forwards on 25 bonus points: Ighalo and Vardy. Only Harry Kane, with 27, has more.

  • Lukaku has scored 2 goals in one game on 4 occasions this season: GWs 2,7, 13, 19

  • The Belgian forward has been substituted 7/30 times this season.

 

Big Rom’s best home days…

 

GW1 (Watford, home): 5pts

GW8 (Liverpool, home): 7pts

GW11 (Sunderland, home): 14pts

GW13 (Aston Villa, home): 12pts

GW15 (Crystal Palace, home): 8pts

GW17 (Leicester, home): 6pts

GW19 (Stoke, home): 13pts

GW20 (Spurs, home): 5pts

GW29 (West Ham, home): 7pts

 

Big Rom’s best away days…

 

GW2 (Southampton, away): 13pts

GW7 (West Brom, away): 16pts

GW12 (West Ham, away): 8pts

GW14 (Bournemouth, away): 6pts

GW16 (Norwich, away): 9pts

GW25 (Stoke, away): 9pts

GW28 (Aston Villa, away): 5pts

 

 

Notes on Ighalo

  • Ighalo has scored 13/15 goals between GWs 5-19. The only other occasions Ighalo has scored was GW1 at Everton, and GW23 in a 2-1 home victory over Newcastle.

  • In the second half of the season, now at 11 games in, Ighalo only has 1 goal, and has achieved only 2 points on 10 of the other 11 occasions.

  • Starting the season at 5.0m, Ighalo’s price rose to its maximum between GWs 21-24 when his highest value was 6.4m.

  • Ighalo is joint second on 25 bonus points with Lukaku and Vardy, but has only managed 3 bonus points from 13 games.

  • Ighalo’s favourite team to score FPL points again is Newcastle. Ighalo scored 13 points during GW6 at St James’s Park, and 12 points during GW23 at Vicarage Road.

 

Ighalo’s best home days…

 

GW5 (Swansea, home): 9pts

GW11 (West Ham, home): 13pts

GW13 (Man United, home): 5pts

GW15 (Norwich, home): 10pts

GW17 (Liverpool, home): 13pts

GW19 (Spurs, home): 5pts

GW23 (Newcastle, home): 12pts

 

Ighalo’s best away days…

 

GW1 (Everton, away): 6pts

GW6 (Newcastle, away): 13pts

GW8 (Bournemouth, away): 9pts

GW10 (Stoke, away): 7pts

GW14 (Aston Villa, away): 12pts

GW16 (Sunderland, away): 7pts

GW18 (Chelsea, away): 6pts

 

 

Notes on Deeney

  • The Englishman started the season at 5.5m, and has never risen above his original price despite having 5 more FPL points than Sergio Aguero, and being in the top 5 forward options for the season.

  • Deeney didn’t score his first goal of the season until GW10, away at Stoke in a 2-0 victory.

  • Troy Deeney is the ‘King’ of our wildcard options. Having never been above 5% ownership all season, Deeney is a regular addition to our weekly articles that assesses the differentials for each and every Gameweek.

  • Deeney has only scored in both home and away ties against one team this season: Stoke (GW10 and GW31).

  • Deeney has blanked from 14/31 games this season, meaning he’s good for points on average of every other game.

  • The forward, caught in the shadow of Ighalo for much of the season, has 8 assists to his name, compared to Ighalo’s 6.

  • Deeney has only been substituted on 2 occasions this season. He gets the minutes in, which is what FPL players love.

 

Deeney’s best home days…

 

GW5 (Swansea, home): 5pts

GW13 (Man United, home): 6pts

GW15 (Norwich, home): 11pts

GW17 (Liverpool, home): 5pts

GW19 (Spurs, home): 4pts

GW23 (Newcastle, home): 6pts

GW31 (Stoke, home): 8pts

 

Deeney’s best away days…

 

GW1 (Everton, away): 4pts

GW6 (Newcastle, away): 5pts

GW10 (Stoke, away): 6pts

GW12 (Leicester, away): 8pts

GW14 (Aston Villa, away): 11pts

GW18 (Chelsea, away): 8pts

GW26 (Crystal Palace, away): 13pts

 

 

Notes on The Kun

  • Between GWs 9-18, Aguero missed 7 games through injury

  • Aguero managed just 10 FPL points away from home in the first half of the season, without a single return.

  • The Argentine forward has scored 16 goals this season, but has only scored in 9/30 games this season. The figure is 9/23 if you factor in games missed through injury.

  • Aguero has completed 90 minutes in his last 8 matches (GWs 23-31, minus a GW27 blank due to the League Cup final), but only has done so on 3 other GWs (4, 6, 21).

  • The £13.6m forward has managed just 2 FPL points or less from a single Gameweek on 13 different occasions.

  • Aguero has only managed 2 assists so far in the 2015/16 season. First, in a 2-1 home defeat against West Ham during GW6. Second, Aguero assisted David Silva during GW22s 4-0 home victory against Crystal Palace

  • Aguero has managed 2 goals or more in a single game on four different occasions this season:

    • GW8: Newcastle (h), 5 goals

    • GW22: Crystal Palace (h), 2 goals

    • GW23: West Ham (a), 2 goals

    • GW29: Aston Villa (h), 2 goals

 

Aguero’s best home days…

 

GW2 (Chelsea, home): 6pts

GW8 (Newcastle, home): 25pts

GW13 (Liverpool, home): 6pts

GW22 (Crystal Palace, home): 16pts

GW25 (Leicester, home): 6pts

GW29 (Aston Villa, home): 11pts

 

Aguero’s only away day returns…

 

GW20 (Watford, away): 9pts

GW23 (West Ham, away): 13pts

GW24 (Sunderland, away): 5pts

 

 

Notes on Giroud

  • Giroud has only started 21 games this season. The Frenchmen’s other 9 appearances have been as a substitute.

  • Giroud is just 6 points away from beating his record from last season. In 2014/15 Giroud finished with 120 points, and is currently on 115 for the current campaign.

  • The last goals Olivier scored were during Arsenal’s GW21 3-3 away draw with Liverpool. On that night Giroud scored 2, earning all 3 bonus points.

  • Giroud has only managed 1 double digits week, and that was against Liverpool during GW21.

  • The French forward has scored 5 FPL points from 7 games this season.

  • Giroud has only managed 9 bonus points this season, all coming from 5 games.

 

Giroud’s best home days…

 

GW5 (Stoke, home): 5pts

GW10 (Everton, home): 6pts

GW17 (Man City, home): 8pts

GW19 (Bournemouth, home): 5pts

GW20 (Newcastle, home): 5pts

GW26 (Leicester, home): 5pts

 

Giroud’s best away days…

 

GW2 (Crystal Palace, away): 7pts

GW7 (Leicester, away): 5pts

GW9 (Watford, away): 5pts

GW11 (Swansea, away): 6pts

GW13 (West Brom, away): 7pts

GW16 (Aston Villa, away): 6pts

GW21 (Liverpool, away): 13pts

GW25 (Bournemouth, away): 5pts

 

 

Notes on Costa

  • Through injury and suspension, Costa has missed 6 BPL games this season.

  • Costa has managed 1 point a game 5 times this season. On each occasion the Brazilian turned Spanish forward was booked without scoring.

  • In addition to the 5 times Costa has managed just one point, he’s also managed 0 points from 7 games, and 2 points a game from a further 7 games.

  • In the first half of the season, Costa only managed 4 GWs with any FPL returns (3, 9, 13, 18).

  • From the second half of the campaign, Costa has currently managed 7 weeks’ worth of FPL returns (GWs 20, 22, 23, 25, 26, 27, 28).

  • With 6 assists this season so far, Costa has twice the amount of assists he managed in the entire of the 2014/15 season (3).

  • Costa is banned for the GW32 encounter away at Aston Villa for being sent off in the FA Cup quarter final defeat away at Everton.

  • From Costa’s 14 bonus points this season, the forward has managed the maximum 3 bonus points on 3 occasions (GWs 9, 18, 25).

  • Chelsea are not competing in DGW34, but play twice during DGW37 against Sunderland and Liverpool. Both games are away.

  • Costa has managed to score FPL returns from home and away fixtures against one team this season, Norwich. Costa scored 6pts in GW13, and 8pts in GW28.

 

Costa’s best home days…

 

GW9 (Aston Villa, home): 12pts

GW13 (Norwich, home): 6pts

GW18 (Watford, home): 12pts

GW22 (Everton, home): 9pts

GW25 (Man United, home): 9pts

GW26 (Newcastle, home): 9pts

 

Costa’s best away days…

 

GW3 (West Brom, away): 10pts

GW20 (Crystal Palace, away): 10pts

GW23 (Arsenal, away): 6pts

GW27 (Southampton, away): 4pts

GW28 (Norwich, away): 8pts

 

 

Notes on Pelle

  • The Italian forward has managed just 499 minutes of football in the season half of the season (GW20 onwards), scoring 38 points in that time. 28 of those points have been from the last two fixtures, GWs 30 & 31.

  • Pelle missed 6 games between GWs 14-23 through injury.

  • Between GWs 12-29, Pelle managed just 17 points.

  • Pelle also managed to finish the full 90 minutes on 17 occasions this this. 12/17 of these occasions occurred between GWs 1-13.

  • Pelle is 40 points shy of his 249 points tally from 2014/15. He’s also one more assist better off than last season, with 7, but 3 goals shy of his tally goal from last season (12).

  • Pelle has 12 bonus points this season, and they’ve all been the maximum 3 bonus (GWs 6, 8, 30, 31)

  • Southampton are not featuring in the DGW’s this season. For DGW34 Southampton travel Everton, and for DGW37 they travel to Spurs.

 

Pelle’s best home days…

 

GW4 (Norwich, home); 9pts

GW6 (Man United, home): 13pts

GW7 (Swansea, home): 8pts

GW11 (Bournemouth, home): 6pts

GW31 (Liverpool, home): 15pts

 

Pelle’s best away days…

 

GW1 (Newcastle, away): 5pts

GW8 (Chelsea, away): 14pts

GW30 (Stoke, away): 13pts

 

 

Notes on Defoe

  • Defoe has scored 5/12 goals in 2 GW’s this season. In GW21 Defoe scored twice against Aston Villa, whilst he scored a hat-trick IN GW22 away at Swansea.

  • Defoe has not featured in 4 games this season. Sunderland won none of those 4 games (GWs 7, 8, 15, 18).

  • Between GWs 9-16, Defoe recorded 5 FPL points’ returns of 1. None were due to yellow cards, but via substitution. Defoe picked up yellow cards in the remaining 2 games, where Defoe scored on both occasions (GWs 11 &13).

  • The English forward has spent most of the season as a designated ‘wildcard’ due to the popularity of other strikers, and the fact that Sunderland have only kept 3 clean sheets this season, it’s easier to play forwards against Defoe.

  • Sunderland feature in DGW27, taking on Chelsea and Everton, both at home.

 

Defoe’s best home days…

 

GW3 (Swansea, home): 8pts

GW20 (Aston Villa, home): 13pts

GW28 (Crystal Palace, home): 5pts

 

Defoe’s best away days…

 

GW1 (Leicester, away): 6pts

GW11 (Everton, away): 5pts

GW13 (Crystal Palace, away): 5pts

GW21 (Swansea, away): 17pts

GW25 (Liverpool, away): 6pts

GW29 (Southampton, away): 8pts

GW31 (Newcastle, away): 8pts

 

 

Verdict

What we found during our midfielders article was that the top performers have better returns on the road. At the rear of the pitch, goalkeepers earn more points at home. Forwards are proving slightly more prolific in their home stadiums, but can be proven deadly away from home. Here is a quick run down of what we've found.

 

Jamie Vardy: Home

Harry Kane: Away

Romelu Lukaku: Home

Odion Ighalo: Home

Troy Deeney: Away

Sergio Aguero: Home

Olivier Giroud: Away

Diego Costa: Home

Graziano Pelle: Home

Jermain Defoe: Away

Totals: 6 home, 4 away

 

Striking options have been pretty cut and dry between the first day and now. Jamie Vardy has been a mainstay. Kane took a while to get going, but has been an essential since the turn on November. Since Aguero's return from injury, he's in teams despite a low points return, but never knowing when the Argentine will strike big. Odion Ighalo has been the cheap option to carry, finding good mid-season form, but has now made way for wildcard alternatives such as Rondon, Defoe, and Afobe. Everton's Lukaku is also common place in teams, and will be an essential between GW34 and the end of the season, with the Belgian tipped for 3 Double Gameweek appearances.

 

The Double Gameweek fixtures have come at the right time for alternative forwards to make a mark. Lukaku, Rondon, Giroud, Welbeck, Martial, Rashford, Mitrovic, and potentially Daniel Sturridge, could make big gains in just a few short weeks when most will play their wildcards for GW33.

 

All aboard.

 

 

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