FANTASY FORECAST 2018/19: FPL Gameweek 13
Ahead of each Gameweek in the Fantasy Premier League, The Hype Train invites a special guest onto its Fantasy Forecast, where the three members of the Hype Team and its Special Guests will duel for FPL supremacy in predicting Premier League scores, as well as going head to head in picking a Scout Picks squad for the relevant Gameweek. In addition, we give our insight into who are the players to watch and those to drop, both for traditional FPL leagues and the Draft mode, as well as providing insight into captaincy picks, differentials for the week, and more. Welcome to the Forecast. All aboard.
Fantasy Premier League: Gameweek 13 Deadline
For the 2016/17 Premier League season, the FPL deadline will be one hour before the commencement of the week's first game. The Premier League website lists each FPL deadline, you can always ask on social media, and you can also view a real time countdown on our Weekly Hype page.
How does our Forecasting work?
We have taken to our Hype Team, and the FPL Community, to compete in a weekly head to head dual of wits. We ask the questions that dominate each week in the Fantasy Premier League: who to pick, who to avoid, who to captain, and who may surprise. The three members of the Hype Team, and a Guest, will provide weekly insight for the Gameweek ahead.
For the sake of respecting the rules of the Forecast, we have provided an example of what we're sending out to interested parties that will feature throughout the season.
Premier League Fixture Prediction: As pundits, we are testing our football acumen with PL predictions and will be providing regular updated tables and stats in each edition of the FPL Forecast. A perfect score is worth 3 points whilst a correct result is worth 1 point.
FPL Gameweek Forecasting: Answering the regular questions that come up every single week in the Fantasy Premier League community that helps with identifying captaincy picks, transfers, attacking options, clean sheet potential, teams to look our for and avoid, players to consider for the Draft game, the wildcard differential players, as well as general analysis and comments.
Scout Picks: Picking a squad of 15 for a single Gameweek, without any budget, using the rules of the FPL - formations, captains and vice captains, and the player limits of 3 per club (chips will not be feature of these weekly picks)
Each team must pick a Captain, labelled as (c) and a Vice Captain listed as (vc).
Fixture Prediction: Gameweek 13
Brighton 1-1 Leicester
Everton 3-0 Cardiff
Fulham 2-1 Southampton
Man United 2-0 Crystal Palace
Watford 0-2 Liverpool
West Ham 0-4 Man City
Spurs 0-2 Chelsea
Bournemouth 2-2 Arsenal
Wolves 2-0 Huddersfield
Burnley 0-1 Newcastle
FPL Forecasting: Gameweek 13
Best GW Attacking Options:
Everton (H) vs. Cardiff
Fulham (H) vs. Southampton
Man United (H) vs. Crystal Palace
Liverpool (A) vs. Watford
Man City (A) vs. West Ham
Chelsea (A) vs. Spurs
Wolves (H) vs. Huddersfield
Best GW Defensive / Clean Sheet Potential:
Everton (H) vs. Cardiff
Man United (H) vs. Crystal Palace
Liverpool (A) vs. Watford
Man City (A) vs. West Ham
Chelsea (A) vs. Spurs
Wolves (H) vs. Huddersfield
Newcastle (A) vs. Burnley
Who are your essential Gameweek player picks?:
Salah, Richarlison, Hazard, Robertson, Mane, and Jimenez.
Who are the players that might make the difference this Gameweek in the Draft?:
Chelsea defenders will nullify Spurs assets.
Everton defenders, Digne, Coleman, and Mina.
Wolves defenders would be handy too.
Manchester United assets could give you a great week.
Who are the teams to look out for?:
Man United: The Red Devil’s have an easy home game against a team who is struggling to find the back of the net. They also have the in-form Anthony Martial who finally looks like a decent player.
Fulham: Dilly-dong! My hero Claudio Ranieri has returned to the Premier League after his unjust sacking by Leicester. I think he could start with a dramatic win over a manager who is unjustifiably working in the Premier League, Mark Hughes.
Who are the teams to avoid?:
Burnley: I really do think Newcastle will win this week, the Toon have the momentum in their favour. The Clarets could find it difficult to outmanoeuvre Newcastle.
Spurs: This is the worst time to be playing Chelsea if you’re Spurs, and that time is every time you play Chelsea.
GW Differential Picks:
Yerry Mina and Lucas Digne are hot picks this week, as is Ben Chilwell. There are more defensive differentials this week that I trust than offensive.
FPL Captaincy Picks:
(C) Mohamad Salah – Last season all started with Salah scoring against Watford, and it could be a happy homecoming for the best Premier League season on an individual level.
(VC) Richarlison – Like I would pick anyone else. The Brazilian is a goal scoring maverick and I don’t estimate there will be a better vice captaincy option this week.
Other Gameweek Comments:
The international break will show some revealing rotation trends, and with Benjamin Mendy once again injured it could be a huge week for stand-in defenders to step up to the plate.
FPL Hype Picks: Gameweek 13
Formation: 3-5-2
Starting 11
GK: Jordan Pickford
DEF: Marcos Alonso
DEF: Matt Doherty
DEF: Andrew Robertson
MID: Eden Hazard
MID: Sadio Mane
MID: Richarlison (VC)
MID: Mohamad Salah (C)
MID: Anthony Martial
FOR: Raul Jimenez
FOR: Sergio Aguero
Substitutes
GK: Ederson
FOR: Alexandre Lacazette
DEF: Aymeric Laporte
DEF: Lucas Digne
Fixture Prediction: Gameweek 13 Brighton 1-0 Leicester Everton 3-1 Cardiff Fulham 2-1 Southampton Man United 2-1 Crystal Palace Watford 0-2 Liverpool West Ham 1-3 Man City Spurs 0-2 Chelsea Bournemouth 0-3 Arsenal Wolves 1-0 Huddersfield Burnely 1-2 Newcastle
FPL Hype Picks: Gameweek 13 Formation: 3-4-3
Starting 11
GK: Alisson
DEF: Andrew Robertson DEF: Marcos Alonso DEF: Matt Doherty
MID: David Silva MID: Richarlison Andrade MID: Sadio Mane MID: Eden Hazard (VC)
FOR: Pierre Emerick Aubameyang FOR: Sergio Aguero (C) FOR: Glenn Murray
Substitutes
GK: Rui Patricio MID: Anthony Martial DEF: Lucas Digne DEF: Lewis Dunk
Fixture Prediction: Gameweek 13
Brighton 0-2 Leicester
Everton 2-1 Cardiff
Fulham 2-2 Southampton
Man United 2-1 Crystal Palace
Watford 1-3 Liverpool
West Ham 0-4 Man City
Spurs 1-2 Chelsea
Bournemouth 2-1 Arsenal
Wolves 2-0 Huddersfield
Burnley 0-1 Newcastle
FPL Forecasting: Gameweek 13
Best GW Attacking Options:
Everton (H) vs. Cardiff
Fulham and Southampton
Liverpool (A) vs. Watford
Man City (A) vs. West Ham
Chelsea (A) vs. Spurs
Wolves (H) vs. Huddersfield
Best GW Defensive / Clean Sheet Potential:
Leicester (a) vs. Burnley
Man City (A) vs. West Ham
Wolves (H) vs. Huddersfield
Newcastle (A) vs. Burnley
*There isn't much clean sheet potential this week, unfortunately*
Who are your essential Gameweek player picks?:
Salah/Mane: The obvious ones.
Raul Jimenez: The cheap one.
Raheem Sterling: The rotatable one?
Richarlison: The out of position one.
Aymeric Laporte: the transferred in one.
Matt Doherty: The 'injured' one.
Anthony Martial: The other 'injured' one.
Who are the players that might make the difference this Gameweek in the Draft?:
Yerry Mina (EVE) is likely to be floating around the waiver wire.
Ayoze Perez (NEW) could be on the radar after an impressive Bournemouth display.
Andre Schurrle (FUL) could make an immediate impact with Claudio Ranieri's arrival.
Who are the teams to look out for?:
Newcastle: This game at Burnley is massive for Rafa's players and I'm typically banking on the most 1-0 of performances on Monday. A win and we're in serious business for the season.
Fulham: Claudio Ranieri has one hell of a challenge ahead of him and has the optimum fixture to start his reign at The Cottage - against a struggling Saints side managed by Mark Hughes.
Leicester: Defensively compact, I'm expecting an away win at Brighton, a result which would go against the mould of Brighton's recent good home record.
Chelsea: Can't see Spurs getting anything against Chelsea. Simple as that.
Who are the teams to avoid?:
Man United: I've got no idea how Jose will have his team line-up against Crystal Palace, especially with important Champions League fixtures on the horizon. Would probably avoid the likes of Anthony Martial for the time being.
Spurs: See above.
FPL Captaincy Picks:
(C) Raheem Sterling – Should he play, Sterling has been in some rich form right now and a trip to the Hammers on the horizon, we're anticipating a few goals at London Stadium.
(VC) Mohamed Salah – Sadio Mane is out of form (apparently) and Roberto Firmino is incapable of earning more than 2 points per-match right now. That puts Mohamed Salah at the top of contention from the Fab 3.
Other Gameweek Comments:
The international break will show some revealing rotation trends, and with Benjamin Mendy once again injured it could be a huge week for stand-in defenders to step up to the plate.
FPL Hype Picks: Gameweek 13
Formation: 3-4-3
Starting 11
GK: Martin Dubravka
DEF: Marcos Alonso
DEF: Aymeric Laporte
DEF: Andrew Robertson
MID: Raheem Sterling (C)
MID: Sadio Mane
MID: Richarlison
MID: Mohamad Salah (VC)
FOR: Raul Jimenez
FOR: Callum Wilson
FOR: Sergio Aguero
Substitutes
GK: Kasper Schmeichel
MID: Eden Hazard
DEF: Lucas Digne
DEF: Willy Boly
Fixture Prediction: Gameweek 13
Brighton 1-2 Leicester
Everton 2-0 Cardiff
Fulham 1-1 Southampton
Man United 3-0 Crystal Palace
Watford 1-2 Liverpool
West Ham 1-3 Man City
Spurs 1-1 Chelsea
Bournemouth 2-1 Arsenal
Wolves 1-0 Huddersfield
Burnley 0-1 Newcastle
FPL Forecasting: Gameweek 13
Best GW Attacking Options:
Sterling/Agüero (A) vs West Ham: Equal on shots, key passes, goals and assists over the last two, expect both of these to be heavily involved at the London Stadium. Both should be fresh from the international break, with Sterling having had six days to recover from his full 90 vs Croatia and Agüero having had two weeks off after again missing out on an Argentina call-up.
Salah (A) vs Watford: The contrast between Salah and Mané simply could not be greater at the moment. While the Egyptian scored a last-minute winner vs Tunisia, sobbing Sadio was inconsolable after a poor personal performance vs Equatorial Guinea. Statistically, Salah also has nearly double the xG and more than 12 times the xA of the Senegalese international over the last 5.
Wilson (H) vs Arsenal: With Arsenal having conceded in each of their last five, and Wilson having scored or assisted in eight out of nine games in which Bournemouth have scored, expect the England front-man to be involved again on Sunday.
Richarlison (H) vs Cardiff: After struggling to make an impact last GW against a stubborn Chelsea defence, Richarlison should have more joy at home to Cardiff. Cardiff have conceded 11 goals in 5 away games, and with Richarlison Everton’s greatest threat, he should be on for some points come Saturday.
Martial (H) vs Crystal Palace: With Lukaku and Rashford both at risk of missing out through injury, expect Martial to be integral to United’s attack if he overcomes his hip problem. His confidence is at an all-time high, however beware Martial’s 6 goals in his last 6 games vastly outperforms his combined non-penalty xG of 1.64 over those six games.
Best GW Defensive / Clean Sheet Potential:
Manchester City (A) vs West Ham: City have only conceded one goal away from home all season, and even that (Boly’s hand of God goal for Wolves) should not have been allowed. Need I say more? One should not be put off by Mendy’s absence either, as in the three games he missed earlier in the season, the Sky Blues kept three clean sheets with Delph and Zinchenko filling in.
Wolves (H) vs Huddersfield: Huddersfield have scored the fewest goals, and have the lowest xG of any Premier League team both home and away this season. They are up against the Premier League’s fifth most stubborn defence in Wolves. Despite Wolves being forced into their first defensive change of the season due to Jonny’s knee ligament injury, I think it may be another game in which the Terriers are all bark and no bite.
Newcastle (A) vs Burnley: Burnley’s xG is only marginally better than Huddersfield’s, particularly at home. Meanwhile the Magpies have conceded just the one goal in the last three games. I’m predicting the Clarets will be feeling blue after this one.
Everton (H) vs Cardiff: Cardiff have only scored two goals away from south Wales all season. After Everton kept a clean sheet away at Chelsea, surely they can do the same on their own patch against the Bluebirds.
Who are your essential Gameweek player picks?:
I don’t like to call any player essential for a single gameweek. Any FPL manager worth their salt looks beyond the forthcoming gameweek and employs players based on their run of games in order to avoid being forced into making multiple transfers each week with their team constantly in flux.
But for both this week and beyond, I think if you don’t have Agüero and/or Sterling in your team you’re going to miss out on points aplenty. City are averaging three goals per game, and one can see this continuing with West Ham, Bournemouth and Watford the next teams in line for a Guardiola masterclass.
I wouldn’t suggest using Mo Salah as the sacrificial lamb however, as despite scoring the same number of goals but costing £2.8m more, Salah has been under-performing while Sterling has been over-performing versus their expected stats (xG and xA). Sterling has exceeded his expected tally of goals and assists by 24%, while Mo has under-performed by 22%. Expect señor Salah to come good and to come better than Raheem over the course of the season.
Who are the players that might make the difference this Gameweek in the Draft?:
If you’re lucky enough to have any of the big hitters, I think this could be your week. Agüero, Sterling, and Salah all have a favourable fixture. David Silva may be a good alternative in the City attack. However, expect Spurs and Chelsea to cancel each other out and offer limited returns for their assets.
Who are the teams to look out for?: Everyone knows that Leicester City have had an emotional time of late, but with Vichai Srivaddhanaprabha’s death having been suitably commemorated, the players’ focus will now be firmly shifting back to matters on the pitch. Vardy has cut a frustrated figure, underachieving compared to his expected stats (xG and xA) by a whopping 43%. Expect him to burst in to life at some point, and looking at the next three games of Brighton, Watford and Fulham, it could well be now. Two weeks off might have been just what he and the team needed.
After failing to win in their first 10 games, Newcastle United have jump-started their season by winning both of their last two. None of their next six games this side of Christmas have a Fixture Difficulty Ranking of 4 or more, so Rafa will be hoping to continue his winning run. Keep an eye on Rondon, who played the full 90 in both wins, and scored a memorable brace last GW.
Who are the teams to avoid?:
Fulham are in disastrous form having lost their last six, conceding an average of three goals per game in the process. I wouldn’t even back them at home to Southampton, that’s how bad it is.
Crystal Palace are without a win in seven. Their form doesn’t look likely to improve as they travel to Old Trafford.
Burnley have the highest overall xGA (expected goals against) of any team. They conceded 13 goals in three games before drawing 0-0 with Leicester. Their inconsistency is scary, and not even fixtures against Newcastle and Crystal Palace tempt me.
GW Differential Picks:
Austin (A) vs Fulham: With Ings potentially out with a thigh injury, angry Austin, fresh from his Parklife video fame, may be leading the line for the Saints. Now VAR has been confirmed for next season, he may be in higher spirits to fire past Fulham.
Jiménez (H) vs Huddersfield: A goal and two assists over his last two games against tough opposition in Spurs and Arsenal says he can do something similar at home to 19th-placed Huddersfield.
Guðmundsson (H) vs Newcastle: Burnley’s Icelandic playmaker has scored or assisted half of the Clarets’ goals this season. If they net against Newcastle, he might well be involved.
FPL Captaincy Picks:
(C) Agüero: Two weeks off, averaging a goal or assist every game, in a team averaging three goals per game. Sterling is overachieving, and more at risk of starting on the bench.
(VC) Salah: Back in form, higher xG per 90 than Sterling without as high a rotation risk.
Other Gameweek Comments:
Plenty of ‘injuries’ around this week, so keep an eye on those press conferences for updates. This week might be a lesson for many not to use one’s free transfer(s) too early, particularly over an international break. Those who have done so may well be going backwards this week if forced into taking hits.
FPL Hype Picks: Gameweek 13
Formation: 4-4-2
Starting 11
GK: Rui Patrício
DEF: Aymeric Laporte
DEF: Andrew Robertson
DEF: Marcos Alonso
DEF: Matt Doherty
MID: Mohamed Salah (V)
MID: Raheem Sterling
MID: Eden Hazard
MID: Richarlison
FOR: Sergio Agüero (C)
FOR: Jamie Vardy
Substitutes
GK: Kasper Schmeichel
DEF: Ben Chilwell
MID: Sadio Mané
FOR: Callum Wilson
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The Hype Train is an entertainment website founded in 2015, specialising in the Fantasy Premier League (#FPL), providing beautiful graphics and weekly insight for hopeful players attempting to climb ranking tables. We are also occasional media reviewers, with a keen interest to review movies, live sport, and professional wrestling.
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All aboard.
