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Weekly Differentials 2019/20: FPL Gameweek 18

Ahead of each round of Premier League games The Hype Train analyses the best left-field player options for your Fantasy Premier League teams. Historically, weekly FPL Dream Team’s comprise of mostly differential players whose selection falls with a low selection percentage of overall players, to which there is no doubt that their influence cannot be ignored. With such an abundance of points coming from the FPL’s hidden gems The Hype Train selects one player from each Premier League match in the upcoming Gameweek to decide who could be the differential that sets your team apart. All aboard.

Fantasy Premier League: Gameweek 18 Deadline

For the 2019/20 Premier League season, the FPL deadline will be one hour before the commencement of the week's first game. Our website provides a real-world countdown timer for the the upcoming Gameweek, whilst you can read our latest Fantasy articles from the season on our 2019/20 FPL weekly hype sub-section.

Weekly Differentials (GW18)

There are two teams missing from this Gameweek, and what would have been a fantasy points’ haul for Liverpool assets against West Ham. There are also huge clashes this week, and lots of difficult to call fixtures. Manchester City and Leicester epitomise this, and then there is the matter of Spurs and Chelsea, and Arteta having to figure out how to win over the toxicity of the Arsenal support. The rest of the fixtures are between teams around the same level which doesn’t add to the certainty over this crop of fixtures. We are back once again to offer nine differentials that might make sense in a shortened Gameweek.

GW18: Differential Highlights

Dominic Calvert-Lewin (EVERTON vs. Arsenal):

The Toffees host Arsenal this weekend, and with the new manager taking charge at the Gunners we are here debating if their will be a new manager bounce. Mikel Arteta has one herculean task on his hands at Arsenal, but that means having a new starting eleven. The truth is that Arsenal don’t have a spine in their team, they got lots of attackers, but their defence would struggle in the Championship. Calvert-Lewin nabbed two goals in his last home game against Chelsea, and we can see the Arsenal supporters already making up their minds about Arteta by Saturday afternoon.

Vincente Guaita (Newcastle vs. CRYSTAL PALACE):

Right now, Guaita is the best goalkeeping option in the FPL. He has got a minimum of 8pts in his last four games, obtained bonus in all of them, and even when he has conceded is picking up save points. Fixtures are on his side too, with one troublesome away game at City in GW23 the only obstacle up until GW30. Palace visit Newcastle this weekend, and with the Toon struggling to make chances for themselves there is total faith in Guaita going forward. We can’t believe he is only owned by just over three percent of all players.

Lucas Moura (SPURS vs. Chelsea):

Priced at £7.0mil, Moura is very well priced for his potential right now. The Brazilian winger has two goals in his last two games, and with Spurs scoring lots of goals under Mourinho the Portuguese sees more potential in his attack than his defence. Alli, Son, Kane, and Moura are all doing their part, and with Mourinho’s reunion with Chelsea upcoming this weekend it could be a back-and-forth London derby with lots of goals.

Gameweek 18: Differentials

EVE/ARS: Dominic Calvert-Lewin (EVE, FWD, £5.7mil, 1.3% ownership)

AVL/SOU: Tom Heaton (AVL, GK, £4.5mil, 5.3% ownership)

BOU/BUR: Chris Mepham (BOU, DEF, £4.3mil, 0.8% ownership)

BHA/SHU: Neal Maupay (BHA, FWD, £5.8mil, 1.6% ownership)

NEW/CRY: Vincente Guaita (CRY, GK, £5.1mil, 3.1% ownership)

NOR/WOL: Matt Doherty (WOL, DEF, £6.1mil, 4.5% ownership)

MCI/LEI: Gabriel Jesus (MCI, FWD, £9.6mil, 3.6% ownership)

WAT/MUN: Anthony Martial (MUN, MID, £7.7% ownership)

TOT/CHE: Lucas Moura (TOT, MID, £7.0mil, 4.7% ownership)

Key Differential: Neal Maupay (BHA)

We’ve had a crack at whip with Maupay before as differential captain, and it happened in GW11 against Norwich, which followed a decent run of form going into the game. Norwich had the worst defence in the league, and Maupay drew a blank. Flash forward seven weeks and here we are with another bout of form that has caught our attention. Pretty much every single fixture this weekend is evens, with the result being able to swing in any direction. The one thing that you must bank on this weekend is form. Let us break down every differential this week to explain our thinking.

  • Dominic Calvert-Lewin (EVE): Early game, no sustained form, tough fixture. Arsenal have a new manager and there is a risk of having a new manager bounce.

  • Tom Heaton (AVL): No sustained form, Ings is in form, but Villa do perform better at home.

  • Chris Mepham (BOU): A huge win against Chelsea puts Bournemouth back on FPL manager radars, but there is still the problem of having too many injuries and lightening barely strikes for teams outside of the top six teams. Burnley also pose a threat from set pieces, so Mepham is picked in hope that Bournemouth use this momentum.

  • Neal Maupay (BHA): The Seagulls forward has three goals in three consecutive games and has picked up five bonus points in those fixtures. The teams Maupay has scored against hasn’t fazed him, and there is no downside of picking him as captain. Sheffield United haven’t been as airtight as they were in the opening of the season.

  • Vincente Guaita (CRY): The Eagles goalkeeper has been an amazing option to have and has fixtures on his side. The Eagles defence has been eradicated by injuries, and Newcastle have a good record against Palace at St James Park. There are lots of risks with picking a goalkeeper as captain as their returns are usually capped unless there is a freak game with lots of penalty saves.

  • Matt Doherty (WOL): The wing-back has attacking potential, and Wolves have been competitive in most of their fixtures this year. Doherty has the bonus of defensive points, but that goes against him if Pukki grabs another goal.

  • Gabriel Jesus (MCI): City have a tough fixture against Leicester who are in fine form, and are scoring lots of goals, and have the best defence in the league. Jesus has scoring potential, but his chances may be limited.

  • Anthony Martial (MUN): Manchester United have been in fine scoring form, particularly Marcius Rashford. The eye test for Watford though is a huge doubt, the Hornets caused Liverpool tonnes of problems and on any other day would have beat the Reds. Martial is a great option to have,

  • Lucas Moura (TOT): Spurs are in a hotly contested London Derby, and whilst Moura has form on his side, derbies also have the risk of low scoring draws. This isn’t an easy fixture for either team, and whilst it would be nice to have Moura in your team, you wouldn’t consider him as captain.

Differentials have huge mental red flags, there is always the voice in your head asking, “why don’t more people own this player?” There are usually reasons, Maupay has had lots of competition from other strikers because this year you haven’t needed an Aguero or a Kane to compete. Brighton haven’t always had players that FPL managers gravitate to due to form, fixtures, and general talent.

Glenn Murray had penalties on his side when he was a legitimate fantasy option, and with VAR haunting forwards by scrutinising millimetre offside calls, the trend has been to put as much money into their midfield and trust the template forwards like Vardy (LEI), Abraham (CHE), and Jimenez (WOL). Other forwards in the FPL are spready scarcely across the board, and we can’t see many differential forwards such as Maupay becoming options that break ten percent ownership.

FPL generally look at fixtures to decide transfers, and they won’t touch Maupay because it may clash with John Lundstram (SHU). Once the process of elimination has been assessed Maupay isn’t even considered and immediately disregarded. The marginalisation of strikes like Maupay make them even bigger differentials, and more tempting for us to include him as our differential captain. Brighton have actually been playing really good football on the eye-test, and all of Maupay’s recent three goals have been because of exquisite technique ahead of simple poachers’ goals. Form is form, and that is enough for us to rely on Maupay against Sheffield United.

Want to know more about The Hype Train?

The Hype Train is an entertainment website founded in 2015, specialising in Fantasy sports reporting, starting with Fantasy Premier League (FPL), before expanding to MLS Fantasy coverage in 2018.

We pride ourselves in providing beautiful graphics, statistics, in-depth analytical reporting and free weekly insight for hopeful players attempting to climb rankings tables. We are also occasional media reviewers, with a keen interest to review games, live sport, and professional wrestling.

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All aboard.


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