Premier League 2022/23 Season: FPL Fantasy Forecast - Gameweek 17
Ahead of each Gameweek in the Premier League, The Hype Train's team - Robert Austin, Sam Austin, and Phil Jones - provide a rundown of the upcoming round of games in the Premier League; predicting scores for every game, picking a budgeted squad of 15 players that we think are the top selections each week, whilst ee also comb over other relevant statistics, impressions and insight from around the game and the league to best navigate you through the world of fantasy football, all for free. Welcome to the Forecast. All aboard.
Premier League: Gameweek 17 Fixtures:
2022/23 Premier League Season: Fixture Predictions
Below, our score predictions pit the train's three members against one another. Let's find out how they think the Gameweek will shape up for teams.
2022/23 Premier League Season: Fantasy Forecast
The team go through a list of questions and insight to provide their predictions ahead of each Gameweek. None of the team pay for any subscription based FPL services, and the type of opinions here are based in both stats and analytical thinking where possible, as we tackle the latest round of games.
2022/23 Premier League Season: Gameweek Fantasy Forecast (Sam Austin)
Fixture Predictions: Gameweek 17
Brentford 1-2 Spurs
Crystal Palace 2-1 Fulham
Everton 1-1 Wolves
Leicester 0-2 Newcastle
Southampton 0-2 Brighton
Aston Villa 1-3 Liverpool
Arsenal 2-0 West Ham
Chelsea 1-0 Bournemouth
Man United 2-0 Nottingham Forest
Leeds 0-3 Man City
FPL Forecasting: Gameweek 17
Who are the teams to look out for and avoid?:
I am not going to comment on what teams I think you should look out for because after a jarring month of the World Cup, this will almost be like a mid-season reset. Lots of teams have had lots of rest, others will have players that have just played a lot of World Cup minutes. There will be no form to judge teams off, and a lot of players won’t be settled back into their teams after returning from Qatar, and some teams will miss players that made it to the semi-finals and onwards.
This is a gut call week. Especially because Boxing Day fixtures tend to be quite high scoring and entertaining affairs.
Top FPL player targets ahead of Gameweek 17:
GK: Nick Pope (NEW, GK, £5.3mil, 21.3% ownership)
DEF: Reece James (CHE, DEF, £5.8mil, 14.4% ownership)
MID: Marcus Rashford (MUN, MID, £6.7mil, 22.2% ownership)
FWD: Harry Kane (TOT, FWD, £11.6mil, 27.4% ownership)
Gameweek 17 - FPL Differential Picks:
BRE/TOT: Dejan Kulusevski (TOT, MID, £8.0mil, 5.0% ownership)
CRY/FUL: Michael Olise (CRY, MID, £5.4mil, 0.3% ownership)
EVE/WOL: Raúl Jiménez (WOL, FWD, £6.8mil, 0.2% ownership)
LEI/NEW: Allan Saint-Maximin (NEW, MID, £6.2mil, 3.5% ownership)
SOU/BHA: Kaoru Mitoma (BHA, MID, £4.9mil, 0.2% ownership)
AVL/LIV: Fábio Carvalho (LIV, MID, £5.4mil, 0.4% ownership)
ARS/WHU: Eddie Nketiah (ARS, FWD, £6.5mil, 1.0% ownership)
CHE/BOU: Raheem Sterling (CHE, MID, £9.7mil, 4.3% ownership)
MUN/NFO: Bruno Fernandes (MUN, MID, £9.8mil, 2.7% ownership)
LEE/MCI: Manuel Akanji (MCI, DEF, £5.0mil, 1.4% ownership)
Differential Captain: Raúl Jiménez (WOL)
I’ve gone for a player who hasn’t played in quite some time and made a few bright cameos in the World Cup before Mexico were dumped out at the group stage. The Wolves forward has come back to England and scored a penalty within ten minutes of coming onto the pitch and is highly tipped to start his teams away trip to Goodison Park to face Everton on Boxing Day. Diego Costa hasn’t been the same force he used to be, and they need an outlet.
FPL Captaincy Picks:
Essential: Erling Haaland (MCI)
Alternative: Mohamed Salah (LIV)
Differential (low ownership %): Raul Jiménez (WOL)
Rest of the World XI Challenge Team:
What is Sam’s team all about?: For the 22/23 season, Sam’s latest challenge sees his actual squad only being comprised of players from outside of Europe, with players only from Asia, North and South America, Australasia, and Africa considered.
Target Points: 2330pts
Total Points: 729pts
22/23 Captaincy: 7/16
Ins: Amartey (LEI), Emerson Royal (TOT), Son (TOT), Jiménez (WOL), Mbeumo (BRE).
Outs: Salisu (SOU), Martinez (MUN), Antony (MUN), Jesus (ARS), Firmino (LIV)
Transfer Thoughts: Thank the heavens there was an unlimited set of transfers for GW17 because the World Cup had done a real number on the World XI. Gabriel Jesus is a massive, massive blow to the team. In his stead I am opting for a complete wildcard in the returning Raúl Jiménez who got a goal against Gillingham in the League Cup and is tipped to start the encounter with Everton. The rest of the team are just injured, or unavailable to winning the World Cup like Manchester United’s Martinez. All I really thought about was did I want to risk another blood curdling encounter with Aubameyang in my team, or do I not repeat past mistakes, and I decided that I would prefer a total wildcard over a forward who has disappointed this team in every single game he has played.
22/23 Challenge Team: Rest of the World XI
GW17 Formation: 3-5-2
GK: Alisson (LIV)
DEF: Emerson Royal (TOT)
DEF: Thiago Silva (CHE)
DEF: Gabriel (ARS)
MID: Wilfried Zaha (CRY)
MID: Mohamad Salah (LIV) - (C)
MID: Miguel Almirón (NEW)
MID: Gabriel Martinelli (ARS)
MID: Hueng-Min Son (TOT)
FWD: Raúl Jiménez (WOL)
FWD: Darwin Nunez (LIV) - (VC)
Substitutes:
GK: Wily Caballero (SOU)
FWD: Bryan Mbeumo (BRE)
DEF: Pervis Estupiñán (BHA)
DEF: Daniel Amartey (LEI)
2022/23 Premier League Season: Gameweek Fantasy Forecast (Robert Austin)
Fixture Predictions: Gameweek 17
Brentford 2-3 Spurs
Crystal Palace 1-1 Fulham
Everton 0-1 Wolves
Leicester 0-1 Newcastle
Southampton 1-2 Brighton
Aston Villa 2-3 Liverpool
Arsenal 2-1 West Ham
Chelsea 3-1 Bournemouth
Man United 3-1 Nottingham Forest
Leeds 1-4 Man City
FPL Forecasting: Gameweek 17
Thoughts about the World Cup ending and the return of league football:
Yes, the World Cup was entertaining and the final was one of the best cup finals of all time (Qatar and FIFA get no credit here). Also yes, I am one of millions who is completely burnt out after nonstop international football being jammed down our throats for a month, which was just after a ridiculously packed period of club football that left supporters burnt out. End of season tournaments allow everyone a period to detox, but FIFA are doing their best to have some form of football on every single moment, of every single day, and I’m afraid that it is going to have long term ramifications whereby supporters become disconnected from it all (and it’s hard to not have that opinion after seeing Gianni Infantino make an utter ass out of himself in the Middle East).
With that all said, I am trying my best to get my brain rewired to get excited again, but it currently feels like my Nan is force feeding me more Christmas stuffing when I’m already popping out of my trousers. All I’m asking for is a longer break, so you can learn to miss the football so you’re not just going through the motions (which I probably am).
Next 5 Fixtures (All 20 Clubs):
Arsenal: WHU (H), BHA (A), NEW (H), TOT (A), MUN (H)
Aston Villa: LIV (H), TOT (A), WOL (H), LEE (H), SOU (A)
Bournemouth: CHE (A), CRY (H), MUN (A), BRE (A), NFO (H)
Brentford: TOT (H), WHU (A), LIV (H), BOU (H), LEE (A)
Brighton: SOU (A), ARS (H), EVE (A), LIV (H), LEI (A)
Chelsea: BOU (H), NFO (A), MCI (H), FUL (A), CRY (H)
Crystal Palace: FUL (H), BOU (A), TOT (H), CHE (A), NEW (H)
Everton: WOL (H), MCI (A), BHA (H), SOU (H), WHU (A)
Fulham: CRY (A), SOU (H), LEI (A), CHE (H), NEW (A)
Leeds: MCI (H), NEW (A), WHU (H), AVL (A), BRE (H)
Leicester: NEW (H), LIV (A), FUL (H), NFO (A), BHA (H)
Liverpool: AVL (A), LEI (H), BRE (A), BHA (A), CHE (H)
Man City: LEE (A), EVE (H), CHE (A), MUN (A), TOT (H)
Man United: NFO (H), WOL (A), BOU (H), MCI (H), ARS (A)
Newcastle: LEI (A), LEE (H), ARS (A), FUL (H), CRY (A)
Nottingham Forest: MUN (A), CHE (H), SOU (A), LEI (H), BOU (A)
Southampton: BHA (H), FUL (A), NFO (H), EVE (A), AVL (H)
Spurs: BRE (A), AVL (H), CRY (A), ARS (H), MCI (A)
West Ham: ARS (A), BRE (H), LEE (A), WOL (A), EVE (H)
Wolves: EVE (A), MUN (H), AVL (A), WHU (H), MCI (A)
What teams have really good fixtures (on paper)?:
Chelsea: Besides a tough one at home against City, it’s a good fixture list for Graham Potter
Newcastle: Besides a trip to Arsenal in GW19, Newcastle are a-ok on this front
Liverpool: Going without Mo Salah will be tough – you can set and forget with his games
Man United: Besides a block of City/Arsenal soon, United have a clear schedule
Southampton: They have a clean run of fixtures (some dicey gams, naturally) until GW24
You could also look at West Ham, Leicester, Wolves, and a couple more that have some decent fixtures on paper.
Please, please don’t look at the Fixture Difficulty Rating (FDR) on FPL with the opinion that their scale of rating is worth a dime – they’ve listed Spurs, Chelsea and Man United as a 3 on their ranking system, currently, and largely the game’s not good at reflecting real world scenarios in this department. We have no idea how things will shape up, but Top 6 clubs are typically safe bets throughout a season, and certainly have players in FPL that defy the fixtures. So always, Form > Fixtures (that’s why everyone has Miggy Almiron)!
Are there any upcoming Double Gameweek’s?:
GW19: Chelsea & Fulham
GW20: Spurs & Man City
GW23: Arsenal & Man City
In addition - Arsenal, Everton, Brighton, and maybe Bournemouth & Crystal Palace – will have a future Double Gameweek announced for GW21.
DGW Fixtures:
GW19 – Chelsea: Man City (H), Fulham (A)
GW19 – Fulham: Leicester (A), Chelsea (H)
GW20 – Spurs: Arsenal (H), Man City (A)
GW20 – Man City: Man United (A), Spurs (H)
GW23 – Arsenal: Brentford (H), Man City (H)
GW23 – Man City: Aston Villa (H), Arsenal (A)
Mohamed Salah vs. Kevin De Bruyne:
A lot of members of the so called FPL Community online are debating the two heavy hitting midfielders ahead of the league’s restart – seemingly, many don’t want or can’t afford both (blame the latter on the game’s ridiculous pricing strategy).
KDB (90 points) has the advantage of two upcoming Double Gameweek’s (GW20 & GW23). The hiccup with the DGW’s is that the first is against two Top 6 outfits, with Pep’s team against Man United (A) and Spurs (H), so you’re splitting hairs really at declaring it a bonified Double Gameweek, it’s more a calculated headache for most players gambling against Pep’s rotation in back-to-back tough encounters in close succession… KDB though will largely be starting every game as he alongside Salah are the best players in the division. The benefit then of sticking with KDB, of course is down largely to his ability to deliver points, but also it saves you a potential future transfer if you would like to work the Belgian into your DGW plans.
Mo Salah’s argument is a little bit more straight forward. No Double Gameweek’s as such, but a very strong run of fixtures, and the benefit of having penalty kicks on his side (with the Egyptian not taking a single spot-kick yet in league action this season) means you can set and forget Salah each week, whilst still having the ability to rotate captaincy between Liverpool and Man City’s Erling Haaland – which is currently my preference as this will give Fantasy players more flexibility, and some form of Liverpool attacking coverage, moving forward.
What are the potential stumbling blocks to a good Gameweek?:
- Back to Domestic Reality: Naturally, with an extended break from competitive Premier League football, the variables in the league may have changed, so it’s going to be predictable who is going to pick up where they left off. A break like this wouldn’t have done my beloved Newcastle any favours for instance. The Magpies were flying high and ended with a top home win against Chelsea, and will have to find that energy again, and get Almiron back off the mark quickly to ensure his confidence doesn’t drop at all.
- Rotation: I know it sounds bonkers to even suggest, but this is still the Xmas schedule and it wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see some surprise changes, particularly to Man City (obviously) that will make FPL players worldwide eyeroll.
- No Christmas Clean Sheets: The festive football fixture list can be notorious for open, attacking football with a lack of clean sheets to boast about. Seeing as this is basically a winter restart of the league too, it would be very typical in the Premier League to have this be such a week, especially as the Top 6 all conveniently have good fixtures to fall back on.
- Going Rogue due to Unlimited Transfers: Don’t completely overhaul your squads if you don’t have too. Keep in core FPL assets alongside penalty takers and set-piece takers, it’s not the time to be risky, especially after an elongated pause and a major international tournament later. Just fix up your current draft teams to ensure you’re still in the rat race. Really boring advice, but honestly this game is very simple and the more basic you play it, the less chance you have of completely self-destructing just because you have the option to change everything at once.
Who are the teams to look out for and avoid?:
Newcastle (Watch): I’d like to pass a reminder to everyone putting in Kepa (CHE) ahead of Nick Pope in FPL that despite an upcoming Double Gameweek, it is Newcastle and Arsenal who currently have the most clean sheets after 16 Gameweek’s, with Pope and Ramsdale (ARS) both on 7. Newcastle’s success this season has been built on the back of a rock solid defensive unit, and I’m anticipating that Leicester will struggle to break them down (as most teams have struggled doing so) – so the foundations of FPL points haven’t changed and it’s wise to restart with defensive Newcastle players in your squads.
Leeds (Avoid): There’s a few injury concerns for the tough home tie against City, and with City already having played an elite team in Liverpool as a warm up in the Carabao Cup, this one has it written in the stars for a big away win.
Brighton (Watch): A host of Brighton players have come back from the World Cup on the back of a good tournament, so the camp should be buzzing ahead of a winnable tie against Southampton. Really hoping to see Mitoma (£4.9m) nail down a place in the starting team too – the Japanese international was a real catch in Qatar and registered a goal and an assist in 2 fixtures prior to the tournament.
Aston Villa (Avoid) & Liverpool (Watch): Doesn’t it feel like a thousand years ago since Steven Gerrard was let go by Villa, and sneaking in just before the World Cup was Unai Emery, a classy Manager who saw them get some great results against Man United and Brighton prior to the break. The issue for them is that Emi Martinez can’t come back from celebrating winning the World Cup quickly enough for them, whilst Jacob Ramsey, who hit form for Villa just as I took him out of my Fantasy team (always is the way) is also injured. Martinez though will be a massive miss of personality against Liverpool, so this is probably another marker in Mo Salah’s favour this Gameweek ahead of KDB… Liverpool are also top over the last six Gameweek’s for attempts at goal (100), shots in the box (72), shots on target (39) and big chances created (23).
Top FPL player targets ahead of Gameweek 17:
Before I even looked at any potential transfers for my squad, I knew I was going to own these players as default prior to the transfer deadline: Trippier (NEW), Almiron or Wilson (NEW), Pereira (FUL), Salah (LIV), Rashford (MUN), Haaland (MCI) and Martinelli (ARS).
The rest are interchangeable pieces, like who to have as a third Forward, or am I going to go 3-5-2? So, it may be deciding between a cheap third attacker with good fixtures, against a 5th midfielder who is locked in to start.
Other Gameweek Considerations I’m seeing online:
On Mitrovic: The Serbian is one yellow card away from a suspension, and it would be just typical if he was ruled out a game in DGW19 for picking up a yellow card. I am not sold one bit on Fulham in this period, so if I was to include Mitro, it might be a transfer in the Double Gameweek window itself.
Bueno or No Bueno:
FPL Twitter loves a football pun, and they also love £3.9 million defenders, but when ‘highly esteemed’ online accounts that throw a lot of xG and xA statistics at you, then throw in an assured assumption that the cheap Left Back will play because of some chatter in online fan forums, you have to always second guess if this is just online hype to get a literal hype train going behind a cheap player (yes, we need more).
The upside of Bueno has been the managerial change with a very good coach in Julen Lopetegui taking over at Wolves, and I’m expecting an immediate impact at the club, so if directly asked if Bueno is worth the risk, of course he is. He can act as a 5th defender, and if worse comes to worse, you can always replace Bueno with Everton’s Nathan Patterson (£4.0m), who is a more assured starter at Everton, though with Patterson you have to remember that he plays for Everton, one of the most consistent teams in FPL history for causing players of the game torment.
FPL Captaincy Picks:
Essential: Erling Haaland (MCI)
Alternative: Mohamed Salah (LIV)
Differential: Marcus Rashford (MUN)
FPL Squad Picks: Gameweek 17
Formation: 3-4-3
Budget: £102.6m
Starting 11
GK: Nick Pope (NEW)
DEF: Kieran Trippier (NEW)
DEF: Reece James (CHE)
DEF: William Saliba (ARS)
MID: Mohamed Salah (LIV)
MID: Gabriel Martinelli (ARS)
MID: Marcus Rashford (MUN)
MID: Kaoru Mitoma (NEW)
FOR: Erling Haaland (MCI)
FOR: Harry Kane (TOT)
FOR: Callum Wilson (NEW)
Substitutes
GK: Danny Ward (LEI)
DEF: Timothy Castagne (LEI)
MID: Andreas Pereira (FUL)
DEF: Hugo Bueno (WOL)
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The Hype Train is an entertainment website founded in 2015, specialising in general football and Fantasy sports reporting, starting with Fantasy Premier League (FPL), before expanding to MLS Fantasy coverage in 2018.
We pride ourselves in providing beautiful graphics, statistics, in-depth analytical reporting and free weekly insight for hopeful players attempting to climb rankings tables. We are also occasional media reviewers, with a keen interest to review games, live sport, and professional wrestling.
In 2019, Hype Train Football Club was formed, becoming the first Fantasy Football website to take to the field. HTFC is a socially active team across social and web channels, providing regular match highlights, match reports, comprehensive player statistics and unique player profiles. We won both Goal of the Season Awards in the Berkshire and County FA regions, with Callum Parr-Jones winning the Berks & Bucks FA award, whilst Martin King won the PlaySport UK award.
In 2021, we formed the Reading Sunday Social League (RSSL), a competitive Sunday League involving 8 teams in its debut season. During the 2021/22 season, we won our first-ever trophy, lifting the East Berkshire Football League's Presidents Cup!
The Hype Train were nominated and shortlisted for the 'Best Football Blog' in 2016 by the Football Bloggers Association at their annual Football Blogging Awards (The FBA's), and were again shortlisted as a finalist in 2019 in the 'Best Fantasy Football Blog' category.
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