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Premier League 2022/23 Season: FPL Fantasy Forecast - Gameweek 21



Ahead of each Gameweek in the Premier League, The Hype Train's team - Robert Austin, Sam Austin, and Phil Jones - provide a rundown of the upcoming round of games in the Premier League; predicting scores for every game, picking a budgeted squad of 15 players that we think are the top selections each week, whilst ee also comb over other relevant statistics, impressions and insight from around the game and the league to best navigate you through the world of fantasy football, all for free. Welcome to the Forecast. All aboard.



2022/23 Premier League Season: Fixture Predictions

Below, our score predictions pit the train's three members against one another. Let's find out how they think the Gameweek will shape up for teams.



2022/23 Premier League Season: Fantasy Forecast

The team go through a list of questions and insight to provide their predictions ahead of each Gameweek. None of the team pay for any subscription based FPL services, and the type of opinions here are based in both stats and analytical thinking where possible, as we tackle the latest round of games.



2022/23 Premier League Season: Gameweek Fantasy Forecast (Sam Austin)


Fixture Predictions: Gameweek 21

Liverpool 1-1 Chelsea

Bournemouth 1-2 Nottingham Forest

Leicester 0-3 Brighton

Southampton 1-1 Aston Villa

West Ham 2-0 Everton

Crystal Palace 0-2 Newcastle

Leeds 1-2 Brentford

Man City 3-0 Wolves

Arsenal 2-1 Man United

Fulham 1-2 Spurs


FPL Forecasting: Gameweek 21


Who are the teams to look out for and avoid?:

Newcastle (Watch): The best defence in the league, they just can’t let in a goal at the moment. Absolutely any of their defensive starters are FPL options, and the Toon are away to Palace which should be short work for them. Howe’s team are finding a way in every game, so you can’t write them off, it looks like they are making top four this year for sure.


Liverpool vs. Chelsea (???): This week’s wildcard fixture is Chelsea’s trip to Liverpool, and just a reminder that this was arguably the best fixture of last season based solely on the football. These two had thrilling league encounters, and the two best 0-0’s you’ll ever watch in cup finals which Liverpool both won. I’m anticipating a good game. If Nunez starts for Liverpool, there will be a point in it for both teams, and in regards to Chelsea I have no idea who they are lining up with a new starting eleven signed in this window. I do expect new signing Mykhailo Mudryk to start in the Chelsea forward line, which might be enough to throw off the Reds. I literally have no idea which way this game will go, especially as both managers have been under pressure, and they are both sitting in mid table. Crazy.


Man United (Avoid): The Gunners have that flow right now, and the attractive options in Man United are perplexing this week as Luke Shaw is one of the most transferred in players. Arsenal are going to score in this game, so I would love to know why so many people have looked at the Englishman as a must have for this game. This will be a feisty game, and I think Arsenal are going to edge it. Arsenal have that feeling, that, Champions pedigree about them, and being at home will be a massive boost for them.


Top FPL player targets ahead of Gameweek 21:

GK: Nick Pope (GK, NEW, £5.4mil, 23.6% ownership)

DEF: Fabian Schär (NEW, DEF, £5.0mil, 14.3% ownership)

MID: Riyad Mahrez (MCI, MID, £7.5mil, 5.1% ownership)

FWD: Evan Ferguson (BHA, FWD, £4.5mil, 1.6% ownership)


Gameweek 21 - FPL Differential Picks:

LIV/CHE: Mykhailo Mudryk (CHE, MID, £7.0mil, 0.5% ownership)

BOU/NFO: Serge Aurier (NFO, DEF, £4.5mil, 1.0% ownership)

LEI/BHA: Evan Ferguson (BHA, FWD, £4.5mil, 1.6% ownership)

SOU/AVL: Che Adams (SOU, FWD, £6.3mil, 1.8% ownership)

WHU/EVE: Danny Ings (WHU, FWD, £6.4mil, 1.6% ownership)

CRY/NEW: Callum Wilson (NEW, FWD, £7.2mil, 4.8% ownership)

LEE/BRE: Wilfried Gnonto (LEE, FWD, £5.0mil, 0.5% ownership)

MCI/WOL: Riyad Mahrez (MCI, MID, £7.5mil, 5.1% ownership)

ARS/MUN: Eddie Nketiah (ARS, FWD, £6.6mil, 3.4% ownership)

FUL/TOT: Dejan Kulusevski (TOT, MID, £7.9mil, 4.3% ownership)


Differential Captain: Evan Ferguson (Brighton)

Last weeks differential captain, Riyad Mahrez, picked up 38pts after being the focal point in Man City’s comeback win over Spurs in the Double Gameweek. The Algerian is still in this weeks differentials, but I am going even further down the rabbit hole for a differential captain as we all know Mahrez is a real talent. Evan Ferguson, however, has only started two games for Brighton, and he has settled right into their free scoring attack and has a return in the last of his three games. The Irishman has been added to the team by Roberto De Zerbi ahead of key figures such as Danny Welbeck, and Trossard who just sealed his move to Arsenal. Against Liverpool, Ferguson was top class. The Forward can pass, finish, and win headers all day long, on paper he is one of them attackers who has a little bit of everything and in the true mould of a Brighton player.


Ferguson bullied Liverpool’s defence, and he sent the Everton fans into a fit of rage during the Seagulls visit to Goodison Park. Brighton travel away to Leicester who have one of the most precarious defences in the league, make of that what you will, but Ferguson at £4.5mil option is a no brainer who can enable the rest of your team.


FPL Captaincy Picks:

Essential: Erling Haaland (MCI)

Alternative: Ivan Toney (BRE)

Differential (low ownership %): Evan Ferguson (BHA)




Rest of the World XI Challenge Team:

What is Sam’s team all about?: For the 22/23 season, Sam’s latest challenge sees his actual squad only being comprised of players from outside of Europe, with players only from Asia, North and South America, Australasia, and Africa considered.


Target Points: 2330pts

Total Points: 929pts

22/23 Captaincy: 9/20


Ins: Kaoru Mitoma (BHA), Julián Álvarez (MCI)

Outs: Wilfried Zaha (CRY), Raul Jimenez (WOL)


Transfer Thoughts: Zaha’s time has come to an end after a terrible run of form since the World Cup and replacing him is Brighton’s Japanese maestro who loves finding tight spaces for the Seagull’s to exploit. Leicester away from home sounds like a good game for Mitoma. Elsewhere, I ended the Raul Jimenez experiment, and now that is clear Álvarez is going to get a run of games, City’s best front free have shown themselves: Álvarez, Haaland, Mahrez. The Algerian offered so much to City as a creative outlet, and it invites the other two into the game, so I can see Pep sticking with this trio for a few more games.


The Gameweek 21 team of the non-EU challenge includes:


22/23 Challenge: Rest of the World XI

GW21 Formation: 3-5-2


GK: Alisson (LIV)


DEF: Pervis Estupiñán (BHA)

DEF: Thiago Silva (CHE)

DEF: Gabriel (ARS)


MID: Kaoru Mitoma (BHA)

MID: Mohamad Salah (LIV) - (VC)

MID: Miguel Almirón (NEW)

MID: Gabriel Martinelli (ARS)

MID: Riyad Mahrez (MCI) - (C)


FWD: Julián Álvarez (MCI)

FWD: Darwin Nunez (LIV)


Substitutes:


GK: Wily Caballero (SOU)

FWD: Bryan Mbeumo (BRE)

DEF: Kalidou Koulibaly (CHE)

DEF: Daniel Amartey (LEI)



2022/23 Premier League Season: Gameweek Fantasy Forecast (Robert Austin)


Fixture Predictions: Gameweek 21

Liverpool 2-1 Chelsea

Bournemouth 1-1 Nottingham Forest

Leicester 1-2 Brighton

Southampton 2-1 Aston Villa

West Ham 3-1 Everton

Crystal Palace 0-2 Newcastle

Leeds 3-2 Brentford

Man City 3-1 Wolves

Arsenal 2-2 Man United

Fulham 1-1 Spurs


FPL Forecasting: Gameweek 21


Details of the *potential* Double Gameweek 22:

Man United and Leeds both might be playing twice next Gameweek as long as both teams avoid an FA Cup replay. I live in Reading and my local team (as well as Accrington Stanley facing Leeds) are the only hurdles preventing a double for both. No one in Reading was happy with the draw as the Royals repeatedly draw United away in the FA Cup, and they’re supporters will be so happy to just get this fixture out of the way, so no I don’t think a shock is on the cards in either game.


GW22 – Man United: Crystal Palace (H), Leeds (H)

GW22 – Leeds: Nottingham Forest (A), Man United (A)


The prospect of United playing twice at home, against two mid-table teams no less, already makes this a more intriguing Double Gameweek than the one just past. Rashford and Fernandes will be a popular double to back in midfield, with Luke Shaw in the mix as a sure addition for FPL players.


My advice would be to roll your transfer, where possible, this upcoming Gameweek, to have in place so you can best manoeuvre your selections ahead of the potential DGW.


Was it a success if you Triple Captained Erling Haaland during Gameweek 20?:

It’s all about perspective. If your yardstick is previous seasons in FPL, there have been some stinkers backed in Double Gameweek’s, with 24 points not the worst. Realistically though, for the masses of FPL content creators I saw use the chip (I wasn’t one of them), this Gameweek should have seen Haaland owners get some real daylight ahead of other players, and it just didn’t happen. Any return is a good return, naturally, but I feel those that TC’d during GW21 will be hoping to all things holy that a better Double Gameweek doesn’t present a potentially huge haul… DGW22 has Man United at home twice, so there may be some sweaty palms (and some biased FPL content) upcoming.


By Haaland’s own standards, the Norwegian has 8+ points on 7 other Gameweek’s this season, so it’s potentially a waste as these points are dwarfed by his early season form.


What are the potential stumbling blocks to a good Gameweek?:

- Arsenal and Man United dominate the player selections this weekend. Any combination of Arsenal midfielders, alongside Nketiah/White/Saliba, will be going up against the 45.6% of Rashford owners and the 20.0% of Shaw owners. Something has to give, so a lot of points could be negated.

- Erling Haaland (MCI) not scoring a close range goal and being kept quiet against a useful Wolves outfit.

- Brighton are the new flavour of the month due to their fine form, with differential picks of Mitoma and Ferguson in a tricky (on paper) trip to Leicester. Brighton should win, but it’s one of them fixtures that has you thinking.

- Crystal Palace scoring vs. Newcastle. Zaha’s not been in good form since the resumption of Premier League football and it would be so poetic if it is the Ivorian that is the one to end Newcastle’s run of five consecutive clean sheets.


Who are the teams to look out for and avoid?:


Everton & West Ham (Watch Intently): Watch in the sense that I can’t wait to see what pans out in this game involving a pair of teams deep in the clutches of a relegation battle – there is no chance I will vouch for any FPL considerations from either team. Moyes and Lampard are both keeping their heads just above water and the press are reporting that this crucial game could see the loser get the chop. What’s great about this is the rumours linking David Moyes with a return to Everton, so Lampard could get him the sack at Everton, then get sacked himself, with a potential swap on the cards with Moyes going back to his old stomping ground, and it wouldn’t be too far fetched to see Lampard go back to one of his old clubs too.


Chelsea (Avoid): The Blues keep signing players, but nothing is sticking. Liverpool have a few injury concerns, but look the more likely team to get a result. Last season, these two clubs had some incredible matches in the league and in both domestic cup finals (you won’t find a couple of goalless draws that were as entertaining, let alone with the same outcome), but given the change of circumstances with Chelsea’s ownership and the fact they are throwing money around left, right, and centre, I’m sick to my stomach at the idea of them winning again this season.


Newcastle (Watch): 11 clean sheets deep, and Nick Pope only has 23.7% ownership. Kieran Trippier (68.3%) is more represented in FPL, as well as Miguel Almiron (41.4%), but the Pope ownership is still lower than it should be, despite being the second most selected goalkeeper behind Danny Ward (30.3%). You’ve heard the advice all season, but it needs to be stressed again and again… this Newcastle team are here to stay, have shut up shop, and FPL players to keep pace should have two defensive assets as minimum. Crystal Palace were saved by an incredible Olise free kick against Man United during their recent 1-1 draw at Selhurst Park, and since the World Cup have struggled at both ends of the pitch. On paper, this one is cut and dry for Newcastle to maintain their path towards the Champions League.


Arsenal & Man United (Cautious): An intriguing game with and a huge test for Arsenal on their route to the Premier League crown come May. Arsenal’s only lose this season was against United, whilst both teams are in top form, so from an FPL perspective I am very sketchy about any potential returns and big points. A majority of active players will be hoping that Odegaard and Rashford both score, or one team routes the other.


Spurs (Avoid): The dictionary definition of bipolar, who have crumbled every time they have played a good team this season. Fulham are in this bracket… additionally, one transfer consideration for most is Mitrovic out for Toney, wouldn’t it just be predictable if Mitrovic scores against Spurs (as he did in the first fixture between the two) and then Toney blanks. So predictable given my run with both – aka, I get rid of the other just before they get a result, and then transfer them in when they’re lucky to get a point.


Southampton & Villa (Watch Both?): Villa have picked up form, but have sold Danny Ings, whilst the Saints have (maybe) turned a very tight corner after GW20 victory away at Everton. Ward-Prowse (5.3%) has scored 5 goals and pops up when you least expect it. This will be another really tight game and result – I am edging Southampton as they seem to have a big upturn right now.



FPL Captaincy Picks:

Essential: Erling Haaland (MCI)

Alternative: Kieran Trippier (NEW)

Third Choice: Martin Odegaard (ARS)


FPL Squad Picks: Gameweek 21

Formation: 3-4-3

Budget: £103.0m


Starting 11


GK: Nick Pope (NEW)


DEF: Kieran Trippier (NEW) – (VC)

DEF: Manuel Akanji (MCI)

DEF: William Saliba (ARS)


MID: Marcus Rashford (MUN)

MID: Kevin De Bruyne (MCI)

MID: Martin Ødegaard (ARS)

MID: Miguel Almiron (NEW)


FOR: Harry Kane (TOT)

FOR: Erling Haaland (MCI) – (C)

FOR: Ivan Toney (BRE)


Substitutes


GK: Danny Ward (LEI)

MID: Kaoru Mitoma (BHA)

DEF: Ben Mee (BRE)

DEF: Timothy Castagne (LEI)



Want to know more about The Hype Train?

The Hype Train is an entertainment website founded in 2015, specialising in general football and Fantasy sports reporting, starting with Fantasy Premier League (FPL), before expanding to MLS Fantasy coverage in 2018.

We pride ourselves in providing beautiful graphics, statistics, in-depth analytical reporting and free weekly insight for hopeful players attempting to climb rankings tables. We are also occasional media reviewers, with a keen interest to review games, live sport, and professional wrestling.

In 2019, Hype Train Football Club was formed, becoming the first Fantasy Football website to take to the field. HTFC is a socially active team across social and web channels, providing regular match highlights, match reports, comprehensive player statistics and unique player profiles. We won both Goal of the Season Awards in the Berkshire and County FA regions, with Callum Parr-Jones winning the Berks & Bucks FA award, whilst Martin King won the PlaySport UK award.


In 2021, we formed the Reading Sunday Social League (RSSL), a competitive Sunday League involving 8 teams in its debut season. During the 2021/22 season, we won our first-ever trophy, lifting the East Berkshire Football League's Presidents Cup!

The Hype Train were nominated and shortlisted for the 'Best Football Blog' in 2016 by the Football Bloggers Association at their annual Football Blogging Awards (The FBA's), and were again shortlisted as a finalist in 2019 in the 'Best Fantasy Football Blog' category.

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