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Premier League 2022/23 Season: FPL Fantasy Forecast - Gameweek 3



Ahead of each Gameweek in the Premier League, The Hype Train's team - Robert Austin, Sam Austin, and Phil Jones - provide a rundown of the upcoming round of games in the Premier League; predicting scores for every game, picking a budgeted squad of 15 players that we think are the top selections each week, whilst ee also comb over other relevant statistics, impressions and insight from around the game and the league to best navigate you through the world of fantasy football, all for free. Welcome to the Forecast. All aboard.


Premier League: Gameweek 3 Fixtures:


2022/23 Premier League Season: Fixture Predictions

Below, our score predictions pit the train's three members against one another. Let's find out how they think the Gameweek will shape up for teams.


- The trio have all gone for wins for Spurs, Arsenal, Chlsea, and Liverpool.

- Phil thinks clean sheets might be at a premium this Gameweek, with Palace, Everton, and Leicester, his only picks to shut out their opposition.

- There are unique results in two matches this weekend, with Everton vs. Forest and Newcastle vs. Man City all having varying results. Rob, the train's Newcastle supporter, has prediced a narrow City win, whilst Sam and Phil are morre optimistic of Newcastle's chances at home.

- The highest scoring game is prediced to be at Old Trafford, and it's bad news for United supporters as the team all predict a big win for Liverpool, who are yet to win themselves this season.



2022/23 Premier League Season: Fantasy Forecast

The team go through a list of questions and insight to provide their predictions ahead of each Gameweek. None of the team pay for any subscription based FPL services, and the type of opinions here are based in both stats and analytical thinking where possible, as we tackle the latest round of games.



2022/23 Premier League Season: Gameweek Fantasy Forecast (Sam Austin)


Fixture Predictions: Gameweek 3

Spurs 2-0 Wolves

Crystal Palace 2-1 Aston Villa

Everton 1-1 Nottingham Forest

Fulham 1-2 Brentford

Leicester 0-0 Southampton

Bournemouth 0-3 Arsenal

Leeds 0-2 Chelsea

West Ham 1-1 Brighton

Newcastle 2-1 Man City

Man United 0-4 Liverpool


FPL Forecasting: Gameweek 3


What did you learn from Gameweek 1 & 2?:

That the players you wanted to trust were not trustworthy at all. I had to play my wildcard for GW3 after a series of injuries, the only red card in the game so far (Nunez) and a series of price drops. The patterns are starting to set for players, teams, starters, formations, you name it. The beginning of the season is always problematic, but hopefully the seas start to settle.


Who are the teams to look out for and avoid?:

Newcastle (Watch): I think Newcastle are going to have a big surprise this week for Man City. This match sees the only two teams to have not yet conceded a goal yet. I can see that ending for both teams this Gameweek, and Newcastle are a tough nut to crack. This kind of match could see a surprise.


Arsenal (Watch): They are going to continue their strong start to the season against a Bournemouth side who are going to struggle most of the season.


Everton (Avoid): No. They have lost their first two matches of the season and Forest were decent against West Ham. No.


Liverpool (Watch) / Man United (Avoid): Despite Liverpool having only gotten a point in their last two games, but people have forgotten the madness at Old Trafford last season, and then at Anfield, and then the season before that too. Manchester United have zero plan, and I think Liverpool will benefit from having one against them. Eventually Liverpool will get their first win of the season and I can see them fired up to get it against the old enemy.



Top FPL player targets ahead of Gameweek 3:

GK: Edouard Mendy (CHE, GK, £5.0mil, 23.5% ownership)

DEF: Reece James (CHE, DEF, £6.1mil, 43.9% ownership)

MID: Wilfried Zaha (CRY, MID, £7.0mil, 8.2% ownership) FWD: Ivan Toney (BRE, FWD, £7.1mil, 12.8% ownership)


Gameweek 3 - FPL Differential Picks:

TOT/WOL: Emerson Royal (TOT, DEF, £5.0mil, 2.9% ownership)

CRY/AVL: Eberechi Eze (CRY, MID, £5.5mil, 1.5% ownership)

EVE/NFO: Taiwo Awoniyi (NFO, FWD, £5.9mil, 1.5% ownership)

FUL/BRE: Mathias Jensen (BRE, MID, £5.0mil, 2.5% ownership)

LEI/SOU: James Maddison (LEI, MID, £8.0mil, 5.8% ownership)

BOU/ARS: Ben White (ARS, DEF, £4.5mil, 5.8% ownership)

LEE/CHE: Raheem Sterling (CHE, MID, £10.0mil, 5.9% ownership)

WHU/BHA: Danny Welbeck (BHA, FWD, £6.5mil, 1.4% ownership)

NEW/MCI: Miguel Almirón (NEW, MID, £5.0mil, 1.3% ownership)

MUN/LIV: Roberto Firmino (LIV, FWD, £8.0mil, 1.2% ownership)


Differential Captain: Taiwo Awoniyi (Nottingham Forest)

The Nigerian striker got the winner against West Ham last weekend, and after a long journey to get to the Premier League, the former Liverpool striker who couldn’t get his work permit has made a splash in Forest’s team. He travels to Merseyside to take on Everton, who haven’t been able to get a win yet, and I can see Frank Lampard sacked before they get one. I think Awoniyi will play his part in that process.


Gameweek 3 - FPL Captaincy Picks:

Essential: Mohamad Salah (LIV)

Alternative: Harry Kane (TOT)

Differential (low ownership %): Taiwo Awoniyi (NFO)



Rest of the World XI Challenge Team:

What is Sam’s team all about?: For the 22/23 season, Sam’s latest challenge sees his actual squad only being comprised of players from outside of Europe, with players only from Asia, North and South America, Australasia, and Africa considered.


Target Points: 2330pts

Total Points: 94pts

22/23 Captaincy: 1/2


Ins: Gabriel (ARS), Thiago Silva (CHE), Emerson Royal (TOT), Wily Caballero (SOU), Gabriel Martinelli (ARS), Luis Diaz (LIV), Bryan Mbeumo (BRE), Miguel Almirón (NEW).

Outs: Lisandro Martinez (MUN), Diego Carlos (AVL), Riyad Mahrez (MCI), Brendon Aaronson (LEE), Matt Turner (ARS), Tariq Lamptey (BHA), Darwin Núñez (LIV). Andreas Pereira (FUL).


I played the Wildcard this week as the whole team needed a restructure. Half the team were not even starting, or were out of form, or got the only red card of the season so far, or got injured, or had terrible fixtures piling up. Most the team has been replaced. I have also gone for the triple-Chelsea defence.


The Gameweek 3 team of the non-EU challenge includes:


22/23 Challenge Team: Rest of the World XI

GW3 Formation: 4-4-2


GK: Edouard Mendy (CHE)


DEF: Kalidou Koulibaly (CHE)

DEF: Thiago Silva (CHE)

DEF: Gabriel (ARS)

DEF: Emerson Royal (TOT)


MID: Hueng-Min Son (TOT)

MID: Gabriel Martinelli (ARS)

MID: Luis Diaz (LIV)

MID: Mohamad Salah (LIV) - (C)


FWD: Gabriel Jesus (ARS) - (VC)

FWD: Bryan Mbeumo (BRE)


Substitutes:


GK: Wily Caballero (SOU)

FWD: Taiwo Awoniyi (NFO)

DEF: Davinson Sánchez (TOT)

MID: Miguel Almirón (NEW)



2022/23 Premier League Season: Gameweek Fantasy Forecast (Robert Austin)


Fixture Predictions: Gameweek 3

Spurs 1-0 Wolves

Crystal Palace 1-1 Aston Villa

Everton 1-2 Nottingham Forest

Fulham 2-2 Brentford

Leicester 2-1 Southampton

Bournemouth 0-2 Arsenal

Leeds 1-3 Chelsea

West Ham 1-1 Brighton

Newcastle 0-1 Man City

Man United 0-3 Liverpool


FPL Forecasting: Gameweek 3


What did you learn from Gameweek 1 & 2?:

Kneejerk reactions can be very frustrating and it’s best to have faith in your picks. Haaland being transferred in for Kane for the sakes of beating a price rise didn’t work out, with Kane’s last gasp goal against Chelsea. This will always happen in fantasy football when early season bandwagons take on a life of its own, but the main lesson is to stress patience.


Thoughts on Casemiro joining Man United?:

United are signing a top player, but this move is clearly a kneejerk reaction to Rabiot and De Jong not joining. The defensive midfielder won’t be an option in FPL, but is great at long range shots and making late runs into the box on occasion, so will have some output. Online, social media is naturally toxic over the move in every corner, but the only opinion I hold is that £70m is a ridiculous price and you can’t even begin to compare the move to the likes of Thiago (LIV) due to the much higher transfer valuation, and what I think many are concerned about is that the club are just throwing money around in every direction, seemingly asking every player and club if they’re available, so the transfer policy clearly hasn’t changed. I’d love to know if this was a ten Haag signing, or one made by the team upstars.


On Morgan Gibbs-White joining Nottingham Forest?:

Perhaps even more ridiculous is Wolves selling Gibbs White to Forest for £25 million plus £20m in add-ons. It might be the best business of the transfer window to sell a player who clearly grew discontent with his position at Wolves. Sure, he is developing and has a lot of potential, but the price point is crazy. Even better for Wolves, they bought Matheus Nunes from Sporting Lisbon for roughly the same price.


Is Josh Dasilva (BRE) a trap in FPL?:

Due to scoring in both opening Gameweek’s, and being £4.5m in FPL (now risen to £4.6m), as of writing Dasilva has been transferred in 725,010 times and counting. On one hand, I can understand the need for the transfer given the bargain basement price – the midfielder is a straight swap for Leon Bailey (AVL) who hasn’t won over his Fantasy owners. On the other hand, XG/XA analysts have highlighted the low XG for Dasilva, leading to a conversation that perhaps he is a flash in the pan and his goals have been based off a fortune that will run out very quickly.


All I do know is that FPL players have virtually few options in each position due to how the game’s players are priced. There are only a few alternatives, and only a few like Dasilva who are in form and part of any conversation, so it’s a low risk move that could work out in your favour, especially as Brentford have a really strong run of fixtures.



What are the potential stumbling blocks to a good FPL Gameweek?:

- Spurs and Wolves having a slow 12:30pm KO

- Mohamed Salah and Gabriel Jesus, the main captaincy contenders, both blanking away from home

- Swing fixtures this week are everywhere – Fulham/Brentford, Leicester/Southampton, West Ham/Brighton, and Everton/Forest – it’s difficult to land on where points will land this weekend in half the games

- Newcastle depriving Erling Haaland of a 3rd Premier League goal, with both teams yet to concede this season

- There’s a lot of expectation that Liverpool will score a few goals at United, though if that doesn’t happen, the Gameweek will take a huge hit

- Both Mitrovic (FUL) and Toney (BRE) blanking in the same game


Who are the teams to look out for and avoid?:

Everton (Avoid): The Toffees have been all over the place in pre-season and during the first few Gameweek’s. I’ve got a feeling that Forest will win at Goodison on Saturday, especially after Forest got off the mark against West Ham. Sure, they’re playing away from home and struggled against a good Newcastle team, but I’m really not sure where Everton are getting their first win from.


Newcastle (Avoid): I’m the only one of the team to predict that Newcastle will lose this weekend at home to City, and yes the Newcastle supporter of the three. I’m a realist, and even though we have turned St. James’ Park into a fortress, I’ve just got to be realistic and accept that we’ll lose sometimes this season. Better to rip the band aid off against City in what will be a very hard fought contest, though I’d love nothing more than to beat Pep’s side and go above them in the table (a sign of the years ahead, surely).


Liverpool (Watch): Precisely defused by Brighton, and torn apart by Brentford, Man United are in complete tatters both on and off the pitch. No, Liverpool haven’t won yet either this season, but the stage is set for Man United to get ripped to shreds if their form continues – and there’s no signs whatsoever that things will change overnight.


Arsenal (Watch): The Gunners are indispensable in FPL right now with Gabriel Jesus, Gabriel Martinelli, and potentially a defender, and they’ll all be top value against a Bournemouth side capable at home.


Brentford & Fulham (Cautious): A really tough fixture to predict between two of the smaller London based Premier League outfits. You’d like to think that team’s boasting both Alexsander Mitrovic (FUL) and Ivan Toney (BRE) will surely lead to goals, but in reality sometimes attack negates attack and both can blank. Brentford have a great run though, so rolling the dice on the likes of Toney each week is a very straight forward move in FPL.


Spurs (Cautious): An early afternoon kick-off always leads to concerns of a sleepy affair, so don’t be surprised if the game against Wolves is low scoring.


Chelsea (Watch): If they play like they did against Spurs last weekend, a routine win against Leeds is on the cards. Would love to see Leeds prove me wrong though.



Gameweek 3 - FPL Captaincy Picks:

Essential: Gabriel Jesus (ARS)

Alternative: Mohamed Salah (LIV)

Differential (low ownership %): Mason Mount (CHE)


FPL Squad Picks: Gameweek 3

Formation: 3-4-3

Budget: £100.9 million


Starting 11


GK: Aaron Ramsdale (ARS)


DEF: Kyle Walker (MCI)

DEF: Reece James (CHE)

DEF: Trent Alexander-Arnold (LIV)


MID: Mohamed Salah (LIV) – (VC)

MID: Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall (LEI)

MID: Gabriel Martinelli (ARS)

MID: Luiz Diaz (LIV)


FOR: Ivan Toney (BRE)

FOR: Erling Haaland (MCI)

FOR: Gabriel Jesus (ARS) – (C)


Substitutes


GK: Danny Ward (LEI)

MID: Andreas Pereira (FUL)

DEF: Kieran Trippier (NEW)

DEF: Neco Williams (FOR)



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