Premier League 2022/23 Season: FPL Fantasy Forecast - Gameweek 30
Ahead of each Gameweek in the Premier League, The Hype Train's team - Robert Austin, Sam Austin, and Phil Jones - provide a rundown of the upcoming round of games in the Premier League; predicting scores for every game, picking a budgeted squad of 15 players that we think are the top selections each week, whilst ee also comb over other relevant statistics, impressions and insight from around the game and the league to best navigate you through the world of fantasy football, all for free. Welcome to the Forecast. All aboard.
Premier League: Gameweek 30 Fixtures:
2022/23 Premier League Season: Fantasy Forecast
The team go through a list of questions and insight to provide their predictions ahead of each Gameweek. None of the team pay for any subscription based FPL services, and the type of opinions here are based in both stats and analytical thinking where possible, as we tackle the latest round of games.
2022/23 Premier League Season: Gameweek Fantasy Forecast (Sam Austin)
Fixture Predictions: Gameweek 30
Man United 2-0 Everton
Aston Villa 2-0 Nottingham Forest
Brentford 1-2 Newcastle
Fulham 2-1 West Ham
Leicester 2-0 Bournemouth
Spurs 2-2 Brighton
Wolves 0-1 Chelsea
Southampton 0-4 Man City
Leeds 2-1 Crystal Palace
Liverpool 3-2 Arsenal
FPL Forecasting: Gameweek 30
Who are the teams to look out for and avoid?:
Man City (Watch): I can already see Haaland and company making short work of Southampton, which will make this weekend interesting in the title race because…
Arsenal (Avoid): Gut feeling that the Gunners may have a hiccup on their title charge, as Liverpool have a good home record against Arsenal. The last time Arsenal beat Liverpool at Anfield was in September 2012 with goals from Santi Cazorla and Lukas Podolski. Also, Mo Salah has 12 goal involvements against Arsenal which means he will be a threat to them in this fixture.
Aston Villa (Watch): Unai Emery has catapulted the Villains into seventh place with only Arsenal and City picking up more points since the Spaniard took charge of the Midlands club. Ollie Watkins have been in great form, and they should breeze past Forest.
Top FPL player targets ahead of Gameweek 26:
GK: Emiliano Martínez (AVL, GK, £4.9mil, 5.9% ownership)
DEF: Ben Chilwell (CHE, DEF, £6.0mil, 11.3% ownership)
MID: Jack Grealish (MCI, MID, £6.9mil, 3.8% ownership)
FWD: Ollie Watkins (AVL, FWD, £7.5mil, 18.3% ownership)
Gameweek 30 - FPL Differential Picks:
MUN/EVE: Diogo Dalot (MUN, DEF, £4.7mil, 4.1% ownership)
AVL/NFO: Emiliano Martínez (AVL, GK, £4.9mil, 5.9% ownership)
BRE/NEW: Allan Saint-Maximin (NEW, MID, £6.1mil, 2.8% ownership)
FUL/WHU: Manor Solomon (FUL, MID, £4.9mil, 0.3% ownership)
LEI/BOU: Jamie Vardy (LEI, FWD, £9.1mil, 2.0% ownership)
TOT/BHA: Evan Ferguson (BHA, FWD, £4.6mil, 1.9% ownership)
WOL/CHE: Kai Havertz (CHE, FWD, £7.6mil, 5.6% ownership)
SOU/MCI: Jack Grealish (MCI, MID, £6.9mil, 3.8% ownership)
LEE/CRY: Jack Harrison (LEE, MID, £5.7mil, 2.7% ownership)
LIV/ARS: Cody Gakpo (LIV, MID, £7.7mil, 3.6% ownership)
Differential Captain: Emiliano Martínez (Aston Villa)
FPL Captaincy Picks:
Essential: Erling Haaland (MCI)
Alternative: Mo Salah (LIV)
Differential (low ownership %): Emiliano Martínez (AVL)
Rest of the World XI Challenge Team:
What is Sam’s team all about?: For the 22/23 season, Sam’s latest challenge sees his actual squad only being comprised of players from outside of Europe, with players only from Asia, North and South America, Australasia, and Africa considered.
Target Points: 2330pts
Total Points: 1552pts
22/23 Captaincy: 17/29
Ins: Gabriel Jesus (ARS)
Outs: Patson Daka (LEI)
Transfer Thoughts: Jesus is back in the Arsenal team after a long absence, and there are very limited Non-EU options. So Jesus is back in as Daka got dropped from the Leicester team since Brendan’s departure.
22/23 Challenge: Rest of the World XI
GW30 Formation: 4-3-3
GK: Alisson (LIV)
DEF: Pervis Estupiñán (BHA)
DEF: Lisandro Martínez (MUN)
DEF: Kalidou Koulibaly (CHE)
MID: Mohamad Salah (LIV) - (C)
MID: Hueng-Min Son (TOT) - (VC)
MID: Kaoru Mitoma (BHA)
MID: Gabriel Martinelli (ARS)
FWD: Darwin Nunez (LIV)
FWD: Bryan Mbeumo (BRE)
FWD: Gabriel Jesus (ARS)
Substitutes:
GK: Keylor Navas (NFO)
MID: Alexis Mac Allister (BHA)
DEF: Gabriel (ARS)
DEF: Harry Souttar (LEI)
2022/23 Premier League Season: Gameweek Fantasy Forecast (Robert Austin)
Fixture Predictions: Gameweek 30
Man United 2-0 Everton
Aston Villa 3-1 Nottingham Forest
Brentford 1-4 Newcastle
Fulham 2-0 West Ham
Leicester 1-1 Bournemouth
Spurs 1-2 Brighton
Wolves 0-0 Chelsea
Southampton 0-3 Man City
Leeds 2-1 Crystal Palace
Liverpool 2-1 Arsenal
FPL Forecasting: Gameweek 30
Was Gameweek 29 a success for long term planners?:
Largely, Double Gameweek 29 was a success if you kept things simple. Rashford, Mitoma, Trippier, and Toney. It was a better week if you entrusted Aston Villa’s Martinez and Watkins, whilst there were some ok returns from usual hitters like Salah and KDB. So, if was a really difficult week to be frustrated as most players returns – besides James Maddison mainly. What I still can’t believe is that Callum Wilson of all players finished as the top points scorer with 19 points. I naturally transferred in Isak for 8 points, and am very surprised Wilson outscored the Swedish international.
Will Erling Haaland start against Southampton?:
This is the million-dollar question ahead of Saturday’s 5:30pm clash in the south coast. Pep Guardiola has confirmed that Haaland will be in the squad for the game, and was directly asked if the 203-point Norwegian attacker needs any game time ahead of a home tie against Bayern Munich in the quarter-finals of the Champions League.
So, as an FPL player if you are looking to bring back in the 73.0% selected Forward back in, if you removed Haaland due to the Double Gameweek just passed, it makes sense on paper. He has a high effective ownership, you won’t be penalised by having him as everyone else does, and of course Haaland has been a regular and consistent feature. The only suggestion that you can make, which is what I think may just happen, is that Julian Alvarez starts again after a good display against Liverpool, with Haaland getting 35-40 minutes off the bench. City won’t want to risk their talisman against Munich in my opinion, so there is a big chance of rotation – there always is at City.
Who are the players to consider to transfer in ahead of the deadline?:
Right off the bat, defensive reinforcements may need to come in for Luke Shaw (MUN) and William Saliba (ARS) are injured. There are only two considerations I would automatically go to, the first being John Stones (MCI), who may be utilised in midfield, and latterly Tyrone Mings (AVL), who has been immense for Villa recently. Fabian Schar (NEW) or Ben Chilwell (CHE) are outside contenders, whilst Fulham and Leicester defenders will be left field selections in winnable home games.
Up top, FPL players are shipping out Ivan Toney (183k transfers out so far), with Erling Haaland the top pick. This is largely due to many players, myself included, having a lot of spare change in the bank, deciding to do one of two moves. First, bringing in Haaland as a premium option with the consideration that he is starting against Southhampton, or doing a straight swap to Ollie Watkins, who has 8 goals and 2 assists in his last 10 league appearances. Of those 10 games for Watkins, the forward only has multiple returns in 1 of those fixtures, a 4-2 loss against Leicester during Gameweek 22 – every other fixture has been a single goal or assist.
What are the potential stumbling blocks to a good Gameweek?:
- Ollie Watkins only being able to score away from home, hurting the 245+ thousand FPL players who have transferred in the forward.
- Liverpool vs. Arsenal could be a really close game, and I imagine that owners of Arsenal’s attacking midfielders (Saka, Martinelli, Odegaard) will be sweating quite a bit. Anfield is a boggy ground and a huge obstacle to overcome.
- Chelsea and Man City both play huge Champions League matches in midweek against Bayern and Real respectively. I wouldn’t blame either Manager, particularly Lampard at Chelsea, if they shuffled the deck.
- Brentford and Newcastle negating one another in an FPL sense. Many/most have Trippier and another Newcastle defender, Ivan Toney and other assets. FPL players can’t expect returns from everyone, every week.
- Just a random point, but after a Double Gameweek, there will certainly be some form of comedown in expectations, so just don’t expect the world as we’re back on a normal fixture schedule.
- Tottenham beating Brighton, which would be considered a shock right now, would mean Mitoma, Mac Allister, Estupinan, and others, could disappoint FPL players.
Who are the teams to look out for and avoid?:
Liverpool (Watch): Jurgen Klopp’s side are known for performing in big home games when needed, and this might be one such weekend. Arsenal are gunning for the Premier League title, but as Man City couldn’t do, in the last fixture of the Gameweek, this will be one tight game and even though logic doesn’t dictate a Liverpool win, my gut is telling me that Arsenal might not get the points they need to keep Man City at a distance.
Chelsea (Avoid): Champions League in the week, and a tough away day at Wolves, with Frank Lampard back in charge, nobody has any clue what side the former England international will put out on Saturday. Not just that, but we don’t know if the players are good enough to give The Blues a positive reaction, especially in what will be a close games against a well drilled Wolves side under Julen Lopetegui.
Brighton (Watch): If you’re worried about Brighton assets against Spurs, there isn’t a lot of evidence to suggest the hosts will be a force, so I’d stick with starting your Brighton players. It would be a huge win for the south coast club too in their pursuit of European football, particularly as they are taking out their nearest rivals in the league with games in hand.
West Ham (Avoid): Fulham will likely kick The Hammers whilst they’re down after a dismal display against Newcastle. I just can’t see how David Moyes gets a win right now, especially against a Fulham side who aren’t pushovers and are ticking as a team (for once).
Leicester & Bournemouth (Cautious): The FPL ‘Scouts’ are heaping praise on James Maddison with all of their picks this Gameweek, just because of the fixture against Bournemouth, which isn’t as easy as advertised. Leicester have sacked Rodgers, but that didn’t stop them losing to Villa, and in this huge relegation 6-pointer, the pundits have suggested it is purely a chance for Maddison to get back into form, rather than backing the Englishman because of form. I only have him in this position as my own squad having no alternatives without taking a hit – and no it isn’t worth dropping points to move on Maddison this week, which is why blind faith is being put into this – I just am scratching my head over the analysis on the Premier League’s website. Sure, I want Maddison to have a productive Gameweek, though Bournemouth beat Leicester already this season, and with Bournemouth on a win-lose-win-lose pattern, they’re convincing me more than a Leicester side who only have a single point (a 1-1 draw with Brentford) in their last 7 matches.
Newcastle (Watch):
Unbreakable at the back most this season, and in current form are undeniable in attack, here’s a reminder that Newcastle’s 5-1 win over West Ham wasn’t their first 5-1 score line of the season – yes, they beat Brentford by this margin during Gameweek 10 on home soil. I can see a good, close game between both teams, but The Magpies have picked up form at the right time as they look to solidify their claims to play in the Champions League.
FPL Captaincy Picks:
Essential: Ollie Watkins (AVL)
Alternative: Marcus Rashford (MUN)
Differential: Alexander Isak (NEW)
FPL Squad Picks: Gameweek 30
Formation: 3-4-3
Budget: £103.0 million
Starting 11
GK: Emi Martinez (AVL)
DEF: Kieran Trippier (NEW)
DEF: John Stones (MCI)
DEF: Ben Chilwell (CHE)
MID: Kevin De Bruyne (MCI)
MID: James Maddison (LEI)
MID: Kaoru Mitoma (BHA)
MID: Marcus Rashford (MUN) – (VC)
FOR: Alexander Isak (NEW)
FOR: Ollie Watkins (AVL) – (C)
FOR: Harry Kane (TOT)
Substitutes
GK: Jason Steele (BHA)
MID: Gabriel Martinelli (ARS)
DEF: Fabian Schar (NEW)
DEF: Timothy Castagne (LEI)
Want to know more about The Hype Train?
The Hype Train is an entertainment website founded in 2015, specialising in general football and Fantasy sports reporting, starting with Fantasy Premier League (FPL), before expanding to MLS Fantasy coverage in 2018.
We pride ourselves in providing beautiful graphics, statistics, in-depth analytical reporting and free weekly insight for hopeful players attempting to climb rankings tables. We are also occasional media reviewers, with a keen interest to review games, live sport, and professional wrestling.
In 2019, Hype Train Football Club was formed, becoming the first Fantasy Football website to take to the field. HTFC is a socially active team across social and web channels, providing regular match highlights, match reports, comprehensive player statistics and unique player profiles. We won both Goal of the Season Awards in the Berkshire and County FA regions, with Callum Parr-Jones winning the Berks & Bucks FA award, whilst Martin King won the PlaySport UK award.
In 2021, we formed the Reading Sunday Social League (RSSL), a competitive Sunday League involving 8 teams in its debut season. During the 2021/22 season, we won our first-ever trophy, lifting the East Berkshire Football League's Presidents Cup!
The Hype Train were nominated and shortlisted for the 'Best Football Blog' in 2016 by the Football Bloggers Association at their annual Football Blogging Awards (The FBA's), and were again shortlisted as a finalist in 2019 in the 'Best Fantasy Football Blog' category.
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