Premier League 2023/24 Season: FPL Fantasy Forecast - Gameweek 1
Ahead of each Gameweek in the Premier League, The Hype Train's team provide a rundown of the upcoming round of games in the Premier League; predicting scores for every game, picking a budgeted squad of 15 players that we think are the top selections each week, whilst we also comb over other relevant statistics, impressions and insight from around the game and the league to best navigate you through the world of fantasy football, all for free. Welcome to the Forecast. All aboard.
2022324 Premier League Season: Fixture Predictions
Below, our score predictions pit the train's three members against one another. Let's find out how they think the Gameweek will shape up for teams.
2023/24 Premier League Season: Fantasy Forecast
The team go through a list of questions and insight to provide their predictions ahead of each Gameweek. None of the team pay for any subscription based FPL services, and the type of opinions here are based in both stats and analytical thinking where possible, as we tackle the latest round of games.
2023/24 Premier League Season: Gameweek Fantasy Forecast (Sam Austin)
Fixture Predictions: Gameweek 1
Burnley 1-3 Man City
Arsenal 3-0 Nottingham Forest
Bournemouth 2-1 West Ham
Brighton 4-0 Luton
Everton 1-1 Fulham
Sheffield United 1-0 Crystal Palace
Newcastle 2-1 Aston Villa
Brentford 3-1 Spurs
Chelsea 3-2 Liverpool
Man United 2-0 Wolves
FPL Forecasting: Gameweek 1
Who are the teams to look out for and avoid for Gameweek 1?:
Liverpool (Avoid): The Liverpool board, Klopp, whoever it is, has massively screwed the team going into the 23-24 season. After a dozen first-team players have departed, and only two have come in to replace them, this threadbare squad (and smallest in the league) has a mammoth task of keeping itself together. I can see Chelsea being the start of another rocky start to the season for Liverpool.
Spurs (Avoid): Kane is leaving, the project is crumbling. Spurs are going to need a miracle to beat a well drilled Brentford team.
Arsenal & Man City (Watch): Last seasons top two have been given ideal fixtures to start the season, so bank on their assets and players.
Top FPL player targets to start the season:
GK: Alisson (LIV)
DEF: Kieran Trippier (NEW)
MID: Martin Ødegaard (ARS)
FWD: Erling Haaland (MCI)
FPL Differentials: GW1
BUR/MCI: Jack Grealish (MCI, MID, £7.5mil, 6.2% ownership)
ARS/NFO: Leandro Trossard (ARS, MID, £7.0mil, 6.3% ownership)
BOU/WHU: Justin Kluivert (BOU, MID, £5.0mil, 0.6% ownership)
BHA/LUT: Lewis Dunk (BHA, DEF, £5.0mil, 4.4% ownership)
EVE/FUL: Willian (FUL, MID, £5.5mil, 0.7% ownership)
SHU/CRY: Osula (SHU, FWD, £4.5mil, 1.5% ownership)
NEW/AVL: Anthony Gordon (NEW, MID, £5.5mil, 0.4% ownership)
BRE/TOT: Yoane Wissa (BRE, FWD, £6.0mil, 5.1% ownership)
CHE/LIV: Luis Diaz (LIV, MID, £7.5mil, 5.7% ownership)
MUN/WOL: Alejandro Garnacho (MUN, MID, £5.0mil, 2.8% ownership)
Differential Captain: Luis Diaz (Liverpool)
The only reason why the Colombian winger isn’t more highly selected is due to the crazy prices of this year’s FPL season (whereby so many players have been elevated about the £7m mark), and that Diaz is in the same team as Mo Salah. Diaz was very productive in pre-season for Liverpool and was part of Klopp’s favoured attacking trio of Diaz-Nunez-Salah and scored some sublime goals along the way. Diaz is back from injury and a lot of people have slept on his value for the upcoming season. Liverpool always scores on the opening day, and it should be a high scoring affair at Stamford Bridge, so watch out for the Colombian giving Reece James a hard day at the office.
An alternative would be Trossard if Arteta wants a more aggressive approach, but there is doubt over whether the Belgian gets the nod ahead of Havertz up top for the Gunners.
Gameweek 1 - FPL Captaincy Picks:
Essential: Erling Haaland (MCI)
Alternative: Mohamad Salah (LIV)
Differential (low ownership %): Luis Diaz (LIV)
FPL Squad Picks: Gameweek 1
Formation: 3-5-2
Budget: £100.0m
Starting 11
GK: André Onana (MUN)
DEF: Gabriel (ARS)
DEF: Pervis Estupiñán (BHA)
DEF: Luke Shaw (MUN)
MID: Marcus Rashford (MUN)
MID: Bryan Mbeumo (BRE)
MID: Bukayo Saka (ARS) - (VC)
MID: Kaoru Mitoma (BHA)
MID: Mohamad Salah (LIV)
FOR: Erling Haaland (MCI) - (C)
FOR: João Pedro (BHA)
Substitutes
GK: Matt Turner (NFO)
DEF: Sven Botman (NEW)
DEF: George Baldock (SHU)
FOR: Hwang Ui-jo (NFO)
2023/24 Premier League Season: Gameweek Fantasy Forecast (Robert Austin)
Fixture Predictions: Gameweek 1
Burnley 0-3 Man City
Arsenal 2-1 Nottingham Forest
Bournemouth 2-2 West Ham
Brighton 3-0 Luton
Everton 1-0 Fulham
Sheffield United 1-3 Crystal Palace
Newcastle 2-0 Aston Villa
Brentford 1-1 Spurs
Chelsea 1-2 Liverpool
Man United 2-0 Wolves
FPL Forecasting: Gameweek 1
What are the key FPL considerations ahead of the GW1 deadline?:
So, by the time this is posted, there will just be under 2 hours before the first deadline of the season, and I have spent some time today talking with my friends and looking online to see where FPL considerations are at.
Firstly, a template has clearly formed. 88.8% of players own Erling Haaland (MCI), whilst Saka (60.0%), Estupinan (53.7%) and Rashford (50.5%) are all owned by a majority of players. Brighton, United, Arsenal, and City are heavily favoured, so most teams have combinations of Stones-Mitoma-Gabriel-Fernandes-Martinelli-Shaw, whilst Mo Salah (27.6%) ownership will only rise in ownership due to Harry Kane leaving.
In conversation when the team here at Hype Train have been talking, here is a snapshot of the discussions we have had;
- Why are there are lack of £4.5m starting goalkeepers? We agree that Johnstone (CRY) is the best option, though our consensus is to upgrade to Onana (MUN) who is slightly more expensive and rules out headaches of having a keeper from a mid-table team, especially as Onana is reasonably priced
- We talked about having too many Brighton options in attack. Phil in the team suggested going for one of Mitoma or Joao Pedro due to their midfield being reshaped and it was a risk having both, even against Luton, and suggested it was a good idea to diversify and have Eze (CRY), Mbuemo (BRE) or even Diaby (AVL) as diverse options on opening day.
- We talked about Liverpool and Chelsea options both being risky in Gameweek 1, but have potential in the weeks ahead, so most FPL players will be forced into a predicament of having Mo Salah and a Chelsea defender such as James/Chilwell or an enabler on the bench in Colwell (£4.5m)
- We discussed doubling up on Man United (Rashford/Fernandes) and Arsenal (Martinelli/Saka/Odegaard) and we all seemed to agree that the only way this happens is if you don’t have Mo Salah in your squad. Of the two options, we agreed Arsenal have a higher ceiling of points and wouldn’t trust Fernandes as he has been hyped up online far too much by United fanboys that play the game
- We discussed having options from a few limited teams (ARS/MUN/MCI/BHA) in the opening weeks as there is a template, but ultimately said operating within a ‘template team’ would get more points than by being left-field and going for players from Newcastle for example who have a hard run of games.
- Kieran Trippier (£6.5m) and Trent Alexander-Arnold (£8.0m) are grossly overpriced this season in particular. We did discuss how to facilitate TAA in our teams in case he has a good start, but you have to sacrifice too much higher up the pitch and it just feels wrong given the price. Liverpool also don’t have a good enough game for us to consider Trent, though if they had started against Luton for example that he would have 80% ownership and Salah over 70%
What are the potential stumbling blocks to a good Gameweek?:
- Burnley proving defensively adept and denying Haaland’s captaincy numbers
- Newcastle/Villa and Chelsea/Liverpool can go either way, with FPL assets from those clubs
- It’s a new Premier League season, there will be a few natural surprises or players that catch the eye that nobody would have anticipated, which leads to panic transferring
- The transfer market means opinions on a team can change in an instant. For example, Moises Caicedo (BHA) will change the opinion of casual FPL players about Liverpool players. The Reds are struggling for midfield reinforcements after clearing out their workhorse position, though his potential addition at Anfield (or Stamford Bridge) will strengthen the argument for Trent Alexander-Arnold or Salah’s inclusion
Who are the teams to look out for and avoid for Gameweek 1?:
Bournemouth (Watch): Hosting West Ham will be a tough game, but I’ve been impressed with their signings this summer. A lot of youth, pace and energy, they will be an enigma and hoping they hit the ground running and in terms of teams most FPL players are overlooking, this is one.
Everton (Cautious): Most are expecting Sean Dyche’s team to be hard to beat and keep more clean sheets. This is largely a similar Everton team that struggled last season though and I have a feeling they will struggle again and really wouldn’t surprise me to see Fulham steal a win to open the season.
Newcastle (Watch): From an FPL perspective, my beloved Magpies are difficult to back. Villa at home can go either way, and then it is City (A) and Liverpool (H), so most will be avoiding our players. Trippier (33.7%), Botman (19.8%) and Isak (16.6%) are all highly selected on opening day, and I think the home atmosphere will push the team over the line to set up some crunch encounters – especially as the club have improved in the right areas over the summer and we’re in a good shape having not lost (nor have we looked too convincing equally). From an FPL viewpoint though, this is a headache to avoid.
Sheffield United (Avoid): Selling key players and riddled with some injuries and concerns, Palace will be licking their lips on opening day. Eze may be an inspired pick.
Brighton (Watch): Dream start and everyone already sees that. The question is how many do you bank on in your teams?
Spurs & Brentford (Cautious): Spurs are in transition and Brentford don’t have Toney. His game could go in 1 of 100 directions, so there’s no clue throwing out hypothetical scenarios. Good for the neutral, but not the game to fixate on in FPL.
Chelsea (Avoid): Being half-decent in pre-season is one thing, but turning it on in competitive action is another. Liverpool are a proven entity and could really win big in this one and expect the Reds to walk away with the win to hype up FPL players figuring out how to get in Salah & TAA ahead of Gameweek 2 against Bournemouth (H).
Burnley & Luton (Avoid): Just a reminder that neither team are playing in Gameweek 2, so there’s no reason to spite your FPL team early doors.
Man United (Watch): Being on the Monday game under the lights has the feeling that United have already won this one. A few additions in and an upgrade in goal with Onana, this should be a win in any form against a Wolves team under new management.
Gameweek 1 - FPL Captaincy Picks:
Essential: Erling Haaland (MCI)
Alternative: Mohamed Salah (LIV)
Differential (low ownership %): Alexander Isak (NEW)
FPL Squad Picks: Gameweek 1
Formation: 3-4-3
Budget: £100.0m
Starting 11
GK: Onana (MUN)
DEF: Stones (MCI)
DEF: Estupinan (BHA)
DEF: Saliba (ARS)
MID: Mitoma (BHA)
MID: Martinelli (ARS)
MID: Salah (LIV) – (VC)
MID: Rashford (MUN)
FOR: Haaland (MCI) – (C)
FOR: Joao Pedro (BHA)
FOR: Alvarez (MCI)
Substitutes
GK: Turner (NFO)
MID: Garnacho (MUN)
DEF: Colwill (CHE)
DEF: Baldock (SHU)
Want to know more about The Hype Train?
The Hype Train is an entertainment website founded in 2015, specialising in general football and Fantasy sports reporting, starting with Fantasy Premier League (FPL), before expanding to MLS Fantasy coverage in 2018.
We pride ourselves in providing beautiful graphics, statistics, in-depth analytical reporting and free weekly insight for hopeful players attempting to climb rankings tables. We are also occasional media reviewers, with a keen interest to review games, live sport, and professional wrestling.
In 2019, Hype Train Football Club was formed, becoming the first Fantasy Football website to take to the field. HTFC is a socially active team across social and web channels, providing regular match highlights, match reports, comprehensive player statistics and unique player profiles. We won both Goal of the Season Awards in the Berkshire and County FA regions, with Callum Parr-Jones winning the Berks & Bucks FA award, whilst Martin King won the PlaySport UK award.
In 2021, we formed the Reading Sunday Social League (RSSL), a competitive Sunday League involving 8 teams in its debut season. During the 2021/22 season, we won our first-ever trophy, lifting the East Berkshire Football League's Presidents Cup!
The Hype Train were nominated and shortlisted for the 'Best Football Blog' in 2016 by the Football Bloggers Association at their annual Football Blogging Awards (The FBA's), and were again shortlisted as a finalist in 2019 in the 'Best Fantasy Football Blog' category.
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